Tories On Course For Narrow Majority Predicts New Election Forecasting System

VIPA modelling predicts the end of anti-Tory tactical voting by analysing switching voters
By: Chameleon PR
 
Feb. 26, 2010 - PRLog -- London, 26th February, 2010 – Resolver Systems, http://www.resolversystems.com today forecast that the Conservatives will win a narrow, but workable, majority government in the 2010 UK general election.
The Voting Intentions Predictive Analysis (VIPA) model, enabled by detailed constituency by constituency analysis, has identified a reversal of traditional tactical voting, as Liberal Democrat voters switch to the Tories.

VIPA predicts that 110 (30%) Labour MPs will lose their seats while the Conservatives will gain 128 seats (58%). This equates to a narrow Conservative victory with a majority of 24, similar to the 1992 majority of 21 won by John Major. Liberal Democrats will see their seats plummet from 63 to 40 (-36%) as previous ‘tactical’ voters move to the Conservatives.

Robert Smithson, Resolver Systems director, explains: “We’re seeing a reversal of the historic anti-Tory tactical voting, particularly in mid-sized UK towns, and a new Conservative majority around the 1992 levels won by John Major. Our data suggest that people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2005 and decide to vote differently now are much more likely to vote Conservative than they are to not vote at all.”

The VIPA model, developed with Guardian/ICM polling data, predicts the Conservatives will receive 37.1% of the national vote, winning 338 seats. Labour will receive 29.7% of the vote winning 239 seats while The Liberal Democrats win 20.6% and 40 seats. Regional parties are also forecast to do well with the Scottish National Party expected to increase their seats to 7 and Plaid Cymru to 5.

Smithson added: “Existing election forecasts in the UK often use techniques based on a Uniform National Swing that was developed in the 1950s, when Labour and the Conservatives took 95% of the vote. Yet these do not take in account the rise of effective third parties in different parts of the country. The VIPA model is designed to accurately model voters ‘switching’ from one party to another, providing a much more accurate forecast for modern elections.”

The VIPA model can be downloaded from http://www.resolversystems.com/election2010

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About Resolver Systems

Resolver Systems is the software company that developed Resolver One, an advanced programmable spreadsheet.
Resolver One is a powerful spreadsheet that kicks in at the point Microsoft Excel reaches its limitations. It is designed for the type of advanced number-crunching, pattern matching and quantitative analysis required in sectors such as scientific research, academic study and complex financial modelling such as those used by hedge funds.
Resolver One allows its users to work directly with the software to easily create, use and reuse calculations and formulas. Resolver One is programmable in Python, a powerful, modular programming language designed to be easy to learn and used by office workers in a range of sectors. Complicated spreadsheet formulae can be extended or replaced with Python code and functions as required.
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