London, 26th February, 2010 – Resolver Systems, http://www.resolversystems.com today forecast that the Conservatives will win a narrow, but workable, majority government in the 2010 UK general election.
The Voting Intentions Predictive Analysis (VIPA) model, enabled by detailed constituency by constituency analysis, has identified a reversal of traditional tactical voting, as Liberal Democrat voters switch to the Tories.
VIPA predicts that 110 (30%) Labour MPs will lose their seats while the Conservatives will gain 128 seats (58%). This equates to a narrow Conservative victory with a majority of 24, similar to the 1992 majority of 21 won by John Major. Liberal Democrats will see their seats plummet from 63 to 40 (-36%) as previous ‘tactical’
Robert Smithson, Resolver Systems director, explains: “We’re seeing a reversal of the historic anti-Tory tactical voting, particularly in mid-sized UK towns, and a new Conservative majority around the 1992 levels won by John Major. Our data suggest that people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2005 and decide to vote differently now are much more likely to vote Conservative than they are to not vote at all.”
The VIPA model, developed with Guardian/ICM polling data, predicts the Conservatives will receive 37.1% of the national vote, winning 338 seats. Labour will receive 29.7% of the vote winning 239 seats while The Liberal Democrats win 20.6% and 40 seats. Regional parties are also forecast to do well with the Scottish National Party expected to increase their seats to 7 and Plaid Cymru to 5.
Smithson added: “Existing election forecasts in the UK often use techniques based on a Uniform National Swing that was developed in the 1950s, when Labour and the Conservatives took 95% of the vote. Yet these do not take in account the rise of effective third parties in different parts of the country. The VIPA model is designed to accurately model voters ‘switching’
The VIPA model can be downloaded from http://www.resolversystems.com/
