Follow on Google News News By Tag * Sean Brodrick * Oil * Pullback * Prices * Target * Range * Exxon * Chevron * Xle * Oil Index Fund * Production * Demand * Gas * More Tags... Industry News News By Place Country(s) Industry News
Follow on Google News | New Economies Thirsty For GasSean Brodrick takes a closer look at different economies and their demand for gas.
In 2007, Chinese drivers bought 5.5 million cars, minivans and SUVs and three million commercial vehicles, up from just 1.6 million vehicles sold in 1997. Sales are expected to grow 15% to 20% in 2008. In the future, China's auto sales are expected to grow by one million vehicles annually through 2015. Meanwhile, India is poised to zoom past China as the world's fastest-growing car market. Sales of passenger cars in India increased 12.17% to 1.5 million in this past year. As a result, China's oil imports are expected to nearly double by 2020, and India's oil imports are projected to more than triple over the same time period. As oil prices threaten to go parabolic, many experts believe OPEC members hold the fate of the U.S. economy in their hands. Abdalla Salem el-Badri, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, recently said that prices would likely go higher and that there is no shortage of crude. Saudi oil minister Minister Ali al-Naimi also says the world is well-supplied. And Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations. Meanwhile, Iran's hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently said that crude at $115 a barrel is too low. World crude oil production has been essentially flat for the last three years while 1.3 billion people in China, 1.1 billion in India, and hundreds of millions more in oil exporting countries continue to increase their oil consumption rapidly. The more oil that exporters, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, use, the less they have to sell to the U.S. The earth's population is expected to grow by 50% to nine billion by sometime in the middle of the century. Meanwhile, the number of cars and trucks is projected to double in 30 years to more than two billion. Many forecasters predict that liquid-fuel demand world-wide will hit 100 million barrels a day by 2015. To meet that, producers will first have to make up for steep declines in existing fields. That decline rate now subtracts an estimated 4.5 million barrels a day from annual output. And that demand assumption assumes supply can keep up, but that might not be the case. “While there is new production coming online from producers including Angola and Libya, there are serious declines in major producers like Russia and Mexico. Mexico is the number two source of imports for the U.S., 1.2 million bpd, and the decline in production from its super-giant Cantarell oil field can only be described as catastrophic. In 2007, Mexico's oil production fell 5.3%, and then fell even faster in the first quarter of 2008, by 7.8%. Mexico's crude oil exports dropped even faster in the first quarter, down 12.5% to 1.49 million barrels per day. Unless something changes, the country's proven oil reserves are expected to run out in approximately nine years,” Mr. Brodrick states. To read this issue online, please visit: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/ About SEAN BRODRICK & MONEY AND MARKETS Sean Brodrick joined Weiss Research in 2000 as an analyst, bringing more than 25 years experience as a journalist and financial analyst to the position. He is Weiss Research’s small-caps specialist, especially in natural resources, and is the editor of the company’s Red-Hot Canadian Small-Caps, as well as a regular contributor to its daily e-letter, Money and Markets. Previously, Mr. Brodrick was the investment director of The Sovereign Society, the world’s leading publisher of offshore asset protection strategies and global investment opportunities. Recognized for his expertise on Canadian and Australian investment opportunities, Mr. Brodrick has been featured on many financial talk shows, including CNBC Squawk Box and Bloomberg Market Line. He is a weekly guest on Market Matters Radio, a contributing columnist to MarketWatch.com and a frequent commentator on one of Canada’s premiere financial websites, HoweStreet.com. His report, “70 Days to Empty,” has garnered acclaim for its analysis of the forces pushing America toward its next oil crisis and was described by The Daily Reckoning as “the most important report you’re likely to read this year,” while his knowledge of uranium has helped investors earn solid gains on the commodity. Mr. Brodrick holds a B.A. degree from the University of Maine. Money and Markets (www.moneyandmarkets.com) End
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
