2011 - 2015 consensus forecast outlook of Future Europe rating

Jan. 12, 2011 - PRLog -- The study was conducted by Pavel Hodorkovski, Future Europe Rating association.

The study has done in September-December 2010, in three stages:

1. Content analysis of macroeconomic forecasts published by the world's leading research institutions (methods: Scanning sources, analysis of global trends).
2. Drawing the consensus forecast by weighting the citation index of authors forecast
3. Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) the consensus forecast from its own investigation, "the driving forces and trends in the global economy"


The main conclusions of the rating prediction.
Rating of events are most likely in the global economy in 2011 - 2015:


1. Information technology industry will absorb a few related industries (games, money transfers, currency speculation, registration and other services for legal entities) and grow as a whole at 170 - 200%. Probability - 97%.

2. Inflation in 2011 - 2012 years will be double-digit worldwide. (94%)

3. Politics drastic budget cuts, which insists that the EU will lead to the return of a deflationary spiral contraction in 2013 - and will spur a new wave of global crisis. The alternative is a series of sovereign defaults, after which it will still run the same script, and the harsh reality of the inevitability of a powerful means of global recession in 2013 (88%)
Arguments: To date, the size of the program of financial support is 860 billion euros. But because of the desire to maintain its rating of the largest party in the person of 440-billion European fund to ensure financial stability at the AAA credit is available for only 550 billion euros.
Here you can also add 67 billion euros that the European Central Bank intends to pay for a peripheral eurozone government bonds immediately. But even so, the amount available for lending increases only up to 727 billion euros.
This will allow Greece, Ireland and Portugal to hold out until 2013 then the term of the existing program will expire, and his place will be a permanent mechanism of crisis, which will provide (a) a reasonable scheme of restructuring of both old and new debts by "cuts" and the extension of maturity.
The crisis will happen before 2013, when Spain, too, may need some help, also need help (the probability of it - more than 50%). In addition, it is not enough for Italy, whose gos.dolg exceeded 100% of GDP, and it has no chance of getting funding.

4. The main trend of aggregate demand in the economy will be the fusion of state and lent them to structure-enterprises and banks - to help stimulate growth while keeping inflation under control (through the metal accounts, and other virtual instruments casino-capitalism). This will lead to an attack on the economic rights of citizens. For example, in order to implement copyright laws will be tightened up many of the sphere of circulation of information products, and thus the increased state revenues and the possibility of controlling the behavior of citizens. (85%)

5. China becomes world's biggest economy, causing a complete overhaul of the economic arrangement of forces in the world. Also, it will prolong the crisis. (84%)
Arguments: Traditional door to exit the world's largest economies from the crisis at the end of the last century there were two factors:
• lower prices for basic commodity products: oil, metals, gas.
• increased exports of high technology products to developing countries
China has changed this pattern of growth. This means that Chinese factories will continue to consume high amounts of the raw material, which produces Australia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia. That is the effect of low-cost resources, thanks to the crisis the world has never felt. But the Chinese economy is growing even in a crisis.
We give some statistics Confirming the fact of the advanced investment in China:
Following 11 months of 2010, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's economy grew by 18% in annual terms - up to $ 91.7 billion Such data are the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC. As a result, year-end figure could reach $ 100 billion, the department spokesman Yao Jian, reports Reuters. In November, the volume of investment in China grew by 38% annualized, to $ 9.7 billion

6. Rising prices for gold, silver, food, rare earth metals, oil and gas in 2011 - 2012 G. - 50 to 80% growth, due to excess liquidity and speculation with metal accounts. Probability - 81%

7. Collapse in property prices since 2013 - by 50% compared to 2012. Probability in different countries - from 70% in China to 78% in Europe.

8. Gains in the financial sector in 2011 - 2012 will grow to a record of historical values. Probability of 78%.

9. World economic growth remain at the level of 2010 (and even lower - in the EU). Unemployment will be at the highest historical level by 2015, according to the forecast of ILO (International Labor Organization at the UN). (76%)

10. Financial power passes to transnational corporations, the trend is one of industry consolidations and corruption, which focuses global control in all fewer hands. But it's antitrend that in the economic sphere is expressed in the replacement of TNK - local (as GLONASS, for example). The result - a complete redistribution of world markets by 2015 (74%)

11. The gradual decline of the traditional oil and gas countries, because of new mining technologies that dramatically reduce the cost of international prices of oil and gas. Thus, by the end of 2010 shale gas production in the U.S. reached 51 billion cubic meters a year. In the first half of 2010, the world's largest fuel companies have spent $ 21 billion in assets, which are related to shale gas.
Russia especially hard hit by the reduction of oil and gas revenues, due to an excess of power in the world, which further increase the market supply. Advent of a new wave of crisis will bring down oil prices. Also, demand for Russian oil contract in Russia itself, in connection with the obligation of the introduction of Euro 4 fuel standards in 2012: as in Russian crude oils increased content of sulfur compounds, the Russian oil will lose the European markets, including in their own cities European part. (73%)

12. Reduction of savings channeled to investment in 2013, due to a combination of factors: the ruin of insurance companies (the trend increase in the number of natural and technological disasters there), the inflationary shock of 2012 and the withdrawal of retirement savings generation of baby boomers. Probability 71%

13. A new wave of bank failures, the collapse of derivatives and stop lending in 2014 the total probability of financial crisis in 2015 - 70%

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Sources
1. Nobel Prize-winning economists including Paul Krugman,  Myron Scholes and Joseph Stiglitz predicted the credit squeeze will inflict more pain on global growth.
``There will be a global recession,'' Scholes said in an interview today at a conference in Lindau, Germany, featuring 14 Nobel laureates in economics. Stiglitz forecast the world economy would continue to perform below its potential for some time, resulting in a ``social loss'' through weaker employment.

2. Paul Krugman:
What particularly concerns me is the risk of self-denying optimism — that is, I worry that policy makers will look at a few favorable economic indicators, decide that they no longer need to promote recovery, and take steps that send us sliding right back to the bottom.

3. Nobel laureate Daniel McFadden, who teaches at the University of California, said in Landau that a financial equivalent of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be established to monitor and certify new financial instruments. Scholes warned against a ``rush to regulation,'' arguing ``the cost of regulation may be far greater than its benefits.''

4. Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial meltdown,  has predicted that global economy's growth will be marginally weaker than this year, with eurozone holding the biggest risk to global growth

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