New Market Study Published: Thailand Commercial Banking Report Q3 2010

July 13, 2010 - PRLog -- The political events unfolding in Thailand are remi niscent of the military coup in 2006 and we caution that consumer loan growth may be hit, but we believe business loan growth should stay relatively The ongoing political uncertainty in Thailand will be a drag on loan growth as consumers and investors hold back on taking on debt as the unrest plays out. We have a broadly negative political outlook for the country over the medium term and the polarised views of the urban elites and the rural poor are unlikely to be resolved quickly. For now, we are happy to ma intain our conservative loan growth forecast of 3.5% for 2010 and 2011, highlighting the dips we expect in key markets such as the US, eurozone and China in 2011 and their concomitant impact on an export-dependent country such as Thailand.     Thailand's consumer confidence index dipped for the third consecutive month in April 2010 to 67.2, the lowest level in nine months, and we believe this will be reflected in declining consumer spending and personal loan growth going forward. Personal consumption loan growth has rebounded very sharply from the recession, increasing by 4.2% quar ter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q409, and accelerating to 4.4% q-o-q in Q110, from a low of 0.9% in Q109. In our view, the surge in loan growth has been fuelled8.06% in January - and a rebound in the Thai economy over this period. In particular, we doubt whether Q110's 6.4% q-o-q rise in cars and motorcycle loans, which make up 22.5% of personal consumption loans, can be sustained, and this component of consumer loans is the most sensitive to changes in sentiment. In the four quarters following the military coup in September 2006, consumer loan growth averaged just 3.8% - considerably lower than the 4.9% average in the previous four-quarter period.     We suspect the impact from the current political turmoil might be similar, although we will have to wait for the loan data for Ap ril, when the political situ ation started to escalate, and May to gauge the effects. Not Inspiring Much Business Confidence The positive spin on the political story is that the violence has largely been confined to a relatively small area of Bangkok, which suggests that manufacturing activity has been largely undisrupted. We therefore believe the political turmoil will have a moderate impact on business loan growth. Over Q409 and Q110 business loan growth improved, accelerating to 4.4% q-o-q in Q110 from 2.8% q-o-q in Q409. However, the political crisis is likely to have dampened business sentiment. As a gauge of this, we note that foreign funds were net sellers of THB14.7bn (US$453mn) of Thai equities in the third week of May, the worst bout of selling since 2007. This suggests that investors are getting jittery about the protests and possibly points towards lower levels of investment and business loans ahead.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (THBbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At March 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (THBbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Thailand Commercial Banking SWOT
- Thailand Political SWOT
- Thailand Economic SWOT
- Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Thailand Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Asia Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009)
- Table: Interbank Rates & Bond Yields
Thailand Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Thailand Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Thailand's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List of Banks
- Table: Commercial Banks In Thailand
- Table: Foreign Banks In Thailand
Company Profiles
- Bangkok Bank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (THBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Kasikornbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (THBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Krung Thai Bank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (THBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Bank of Ayudhya
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (THBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- CIMB Thai Bank
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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