Market Report, "Ukraine Power Report Q3 2010", published

July 8, 2010 - PRLog -- The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.13% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s regional power generation by 2014, and remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2009 was an estimated 2,534 terawatt hours (TWh), a decline of 2.9% from the previous year's level. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,969TWh by 2014, representing a 2010-2014 increase of 14.4%.

Regional thermal power generation in 2009 was around 1,284TWh, accounting for 50.7% of the total electricity supplied in the CEE. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,455TWh, implying 11.6% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.0% - in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 78.5TWh, or 6.11% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 6.01% of thermal generation.

For Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2009 accounting for an estimated 40.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 28.5%, nuclear energy at 16.3%, with oil having an 12.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,546mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth over 2010-2014. Ukraine's estimated 2009 market share of 8.96% is set to ease to 8.81% by 2014. In 2009 Ukraine accounted for an estimated 25.06% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share lower at 23.91% by 2014.

Ukraine now holds sixth place behind Poland in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating. There is no reason to expect that Ukraine will be able to mount a challenge for further promotion over the short to medium term, with Poland some four points above it. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country's electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.

BMI is now forecasting an average annual increase in Ukrainian real GDP of 4.3% per annum between 2010 and 2014, following an assumed 2009 decline of 15.0%. Population is expected to contract from 45.9mn to 45.0mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 113% and 17% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 143TWh in 2009 to 171TWh by the end of the forecast period, recovering from the dramatic 2009 economic reversal. Theoretical surplus generation is expected to rise from an estimated 31TWh in 2009 to 41TWh in 2014, assuming 4.0% annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014. However, the country's transmission and distribution systems are in need of investment and maintenance, and significant quantities of generation are wasted via line losses.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Power Business Environment SWOT
- Ukraine Political SWOT
- Ukraine Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Central And Eastern Europe
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview - Ukraine
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings
- Ukraine's Power Rating
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Ukraine's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Ukraine's Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Ukraine's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Ukraine's Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Ukraine's Power Costs, 2007-2014
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=7172...

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