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Some sections of the financial community are saying there is room for cautious optimism, with the possibility that a v-shaped recovery is underway. There are fragile green shoots of growth beginning to show in the some areas of the economy. Numerous experts are beginning to say that the worst recession to hit the world, is on the verge of slowing down, if not actually beginning to show signs of recovery.
Recent data still shows a mixed picture of deepening distress in some groups and industries, yet there are a few reasons for optimism, that were not visible some months back.
Senior economist at Merrill Lynch, Sheryl King, says, “We’ve seen the worst and we’re starting to see what we normally see at the tail end of a recession. However, I hate to be the skunk at the picnic, but I'm really not all that excited about this".
It is the younger people who have been hit hardest, with 20% of under 20-year-old unemployed. It appears men have suffered worse than women, as industries which have contracted the most, are mainly male dominated. Many people are aware that in certain industries the changes will be permanent and they will never again employ as many people they once did.
Consumer spending fell off a cliff in September 2008. It is anticipated, however, that consumer spending will provide the impetuous that achieves the surge into positive territory once again, even though consumers are still weighted down by their earlier borrowing and over spending spree.
The recession, however, has triggered a major change in the psychology of the average shopper. Not only will consumers diligently hunt for bargains, the ‘second-hand’
The variety of products on offer have dramatically decreased, as has the quantity of goods held on shop shelves. Consumers no longer accept brand alone, as a reason to purchase, but demand value for money.
Those who lend are still unwilling to loan and credit card companies have increased their percentage rates, for even their best customers. Prior to the recession, affluence was generally accepted in the consumer rich countries of the world. Large ticket items, such as a new car, are to be indulged in only as absolutely necessary.
If the indicators are giving the right reading, there may be a modest increase in growth in some countries next year, but it is doubtful that economies will ever reach the level of economic activity they experienced prior to the recession.
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http://www.prlog.org/
