Fortunes of National Parties is on Decline

June 23, 2007 - PRLog -- The combinations and political contours witnessed during the election of the president of India clearly indicate that domination by two major national political parties is on decline while the influence and reach of the regional parties as well as smaller players is on increase. The two players a key role in selection of nominees were the left parties, regional player like Mayawati and the members of the third front.

Thanks to left, the congress party and Sonia Gandhi who could decide the candidate for Prime Minister Office were unable to do same in case of President. The choice of Congress party was rejected and they had to suggest a name which had not even figured in the original panel but became the final choice. The selection of Mrs. Pratibha Patil a Congress nominee became possible only because she was acceptable to all members of UPA supporting the Government from inside as well as outside.

While the Congress had to play hard ball with its allies before it could make their nominee acceptable, the other alliance that is national Democratic alliance had to accept the reality that their old die hard member of Saffron bridge that is Mr. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat will have to file his nomination as an independent to stand any chance of winning.

This change notwithstanding there is allies in NDA camp who are not willing to join the campaign to support him which includes die hard. Hindu group like Shiv Sena as they find that the regional pull of UPA nominee is hard to ignore and have decided to postpone the decision. As for the third front who had been members of the NDA or responsible for making their majority in the last Lok Sabha, they choose to opt for giving a second term to President Dr. Abdul Kalam as they were not prepared to stand with their old allies and patron.

Groups like Telugu Desam who had benefited greatly when NDA was in power are keen to protect their secular image and not prepared to be seen openly in the NDA camp which has BJP as a major constituent. The reservation on the part of Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, who owes his leadership to the following he has because of his caste and minority community who were with him as he offered them best protection against the design of Saffron bridge was even afraid of BJP shadow.

The third front which is keen to oppose Congress and the UPA nominee but would like do so in a manner that their support to NDA does not become a embarrassment to them in public. This they hope to achieve by opting for giving second preference votes for the NDA nominee which would come into play after the candidate getting the least number of votes is eliminated. Even this clever device chosen by those who want to sleep with their partner but keep the relationship secret is becoming difficult as Dr Kalam who was ready to stand as a consensue candidate is not willing to put up a token fight to help desperate groups who are looking for a face saving device. By the time this appears in print the line up for ballot for electing a president will be over. But there is little doubt that the combinations and alliances made will remain to be base in the Lok Sabha poll to follow in two years time and elections in the state.

There is need at this stage to find out why Congress and BJP are losing their clout and regional groups becoming more and more assertive. To understand this one only has to look at the elections in the State that have taken place in last two years. In these polls, the following of the national parties has been declining. All hopes of Congress Party that they after being able to form a government at Center will be able to revive their fortune have not happened. What looked like a revival has become a holding operation only.

The same holds good for BJP which has been on decline because they have not been able to throw up any leadership to replace Stalwarts like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K Advani. The stop gap President Raj Nath Singh is proving to be ad-hoc leader only and the humiliating defeat suffered by the party in U.P has only confirmed what has been known for sometime that unless BJP finds a younger lot of leader with more appeal they face a decline in their fortunes. The efforts made to widen the party base have been undone by strong grip of RSS. The result is that unless there is a mid course correction, BJP may become a peripheral party instead of being a strong contender for power at the center.

The problem faced by Congress is equally acute. It came to power because India was not shining as was made out by BJP. It was aware of the fact that large number of people is not getting any share in the economic growth of the country. Suicides by farmers on account of rural indebtedness, growing unemployment, inflation were seen as problems, but it has not been able to reverse this trend. The result is that it is also losing its shine. The growing power of regional parties implies instability. Can instability and growth go together will be a big question for which an answer will have to be found in very near future.

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