Who Will Be The Winner Regional Or National Player

PRLog (Press Release) – Jun 15, 2007 – Irrespective of the out come of the contest for the post of President of India, it is clearly emerging that contours of the politics in India are changing. It is no more dominated by the national parties like the Congress, BJP, Janta Dal or Left, but by regional players. As far as the members go leaders like Mayawati and K. Karunanidhi are more important as they have numbers on their side instead of parties with national following but lacking the numbers.

If the Congress party is going out of the way to woo parties like Mayawati and K. Karunanidhi, even those regional parties who are on the back burner at the present having lost State elections like TDP, Lok Dal of Haryana and AIADMK are flexing their muscles and are trying to build a third front which will maintain a distance from both the national parties that is Congress and BJP.

These developments clearly indicate future of India politics will be decided by regional outfits and not by national parties who are expected to lose more ground in coming days. The number of states where regional parties are dominating is growing every day. Irrespective of where you look East, West, North or South, the voters are turning to regional outfits instead of national parties.

Starting with North, two big examples are U.P and Bihar which elect nearly one forth of the members for Lok Sabha, the trend will be set by regional parties while Congress and BJP will only be fighting for the third or forth position. In U.P the battle will be between Mayawati and Mulayam Singh who will pick up majority of 80 members to be elected by this state. As for Congress and BJP, they will be running far behind. The same holds good in Bihar where the major contenders will be Laloo Yadav and present Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The Congress and BJP is the junior partner with one of the regional player.

The three States where the battle will be between the two regional parties are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh. In these States, the outcome of poll will be largely decided by incumbency factor giving little room for national parties to improve their tally. Moving to South in Tamil Nadu two Dravidian parties that is DMK and AIADMK will rule the roost and national parties will play minor roles. In Karnataka and Kerala a mixed picture is expected to emerge.

Moving to West in Maharashtra both Congress and BJP have regional allies, but will probably play a role as an equal and not as a junior partner. In Gujarat Congress and BJP will slug it out with BJP having an initial edge thanks to Narendra Modi who has been able to divide the state on communal lines. As for the Eastern region Left have their pockets of influence and will retain their strength, but their performance in the region will help them in emerging as national parties with all-India following as their support base is becoming more and more regional based instead of running through the different regions of the country. In Punjab the fight will be between congress and Akali Dal while BJP will be a junior partner of Akalis.

As for the north east or peripheral states like Goa, Delhi, and Haryana the national parties will have some say but the number will be small to make any impact on the national scale. Under the circumstances it is being suggested that at present two national parties hold sway over half of the Lok Sabha but by the time 2009 comes around they may lose more flab with more and more muscle power going into the fold of regional parties.

Such a situation may not be bad for the country as in the last one decade India has been ruled by a coalition instead of a single party. The implications of new trends will be that regional players will have more influence on Union Government as compared times when a single party ruled at center. This will check authoritarian trends, but will also make it more difficult to resolve inter-state disputes on water sharing or issues involving claims on territory based on language.

Indian economic progress under coalition governments has been positive with growth at seven to nine per cent, but at the same time the gap between poor and rich has grown. The combination of parties at center will find it very difficult to take any firm action to reduce this gap. There are many who believe that any government with less capacity to govern will be good for the country as over-governance or bureaucratic rule only checks growth instead of making things better.

There is however, a negative side to it as coalition rule means larger and larger ministries in Delhi as well in states with less and less to do. The liberalization on economic front was expected to reduce the size of bureaucracy and their political bosses, but the opposite has been happening. With every regional player seeking a place under the sun, any combination will survive only if representation is given to all. A reverse trend is also emerging like victory of BSP with enough numbers to rule the largest state in India on their own. Can this happen on national scale. Looks unlikely at present, but who knows as what happens in U.P becomes a national trend also if past is any guide.