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February 2024

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178 views, By Edward Jones
It was a quiet week for the markets in terms of headlines and new data, with markets oscillating day to day but finishing with a modest move for the week. It's been anything but a quiet year, however.
214 views, By Edward Jones
Key takeaways: Even after six straight weeks of gains, markets remained in holiday mode last week, with stocks marking their seventh week of positive returns.
164 views, By Edward Jones
Key takeaways: The Fed's next move will likely be a rate cut instead of a hike, but the timing of when that might happen could be a source of volatility.The labor market remains strong but is gradually loosening, which, together with better inflation...
135 views, By Edward Jones
Stocks have been on their comeback tour in 2023, mounting a nearly-20% gain so far this year after a lousy 2022. The latest leg of that tour has been particularly enthusiastic, with the market having just closed the books on a banner November.
229 views, By Edward Jones
This past week brought our holiday opportunity to focus on the things we're thankful for. With Thanksgiving 2022  coming as stocks were down 16% on the year, 2023 has brought a market more worthy of investors' thanks.
219 views, By Edward Jones
The combination of consumer and employment data this month suggest that after a long stretch of above-average growth, we may begin to see some fatigue in household consumption and some cooling in the labor market.
210 views, By Edward Jones
The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient through the first three quarters of 2023. In fact, the third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 4.9% was the strongest since 2021 and well above what is considered trend growth in the U.S.
228 views, By Edward Jones
Key takeaways: Stocks rallied sharply last week, as economic data and Fed commentary spurred a decline in interest rates.The outlook for monetary policy remains firmly behind the wheel for financial markets.
239 views, By Edward Jones
Key takeaways: This past week, markets remained on edge as Treasury bond yields continued their march higher. The 10-year Treasury yield is getting particular attention as it nears 5%, a level last seen in 2007.
209 views, By Edward Jones
Key takeaways: The events in the Middle East are a human tragedy that should not be dismissed, but markets have a long history of overcoming geopolitical shocks.The silver lining from the recent surge in Treasury yields is that it may reduce the need for.
237 views, By Edward Jones
The summer celebration in the stock market, to the tune of an impressive 19% rally from March through July, has given way to a new phase in which equities are almost exclusively reacting to interest-rate moves.* The midyear rally was powered by the...
232 views, By Edward Jones
The recent surge in interest rates has been the dominant driver across financial markets of late.
206 views, By Edward Jones
The Fed's new dot plot: One more rate hike left on the table, rate cut forecast reduced in 2024 Perhaps the key focus area for investors from last week's Fed meeting was the update to the "dot plot," or the FOMC's best estimate of where it sees the path..
211 views, By Edward Jones
For most of 2023, investors have got the best of both worlds as it relates to the evolving macroeconomic backdrop – above-trend economic growth supported by a resilient consumer, and still-high but steadily declining inflation.
229 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways After a batch of softer employment figures two weeks ago, data last week offered a still-bright picture of the economy, with productivity and ISM services figures both consistent with ongoing growth.A steepening of the yield curve and...
296 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways This past week, key datapoints around the U.S. jobs market presented a unified message: There are early signs of softening ahead in the labor market.
170 views, By Edward Jones
Last year, Fed Chair Powell dashed hopes for a swift end to the Fed's rate hikes.
239 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: After a steady rally from March through July, the market's mood has shifted more recently, with stocks falling last week, continuing what has been a rather weak August so far.
175 views, By Edward Jones
Some caution after a strong rally seems reasonable here After a remarkably strong rally to start the year, markets have given back a bit in August thus far, with the S&P 500 down around 3% since its recent high on July 31.
239 views, By Edward Jones
Fitch downgraded U.S. government credit, shining a spotlight on the growing federal debt burden.
185 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: While the move higher in markets was sparked earlier by the enthusiasm around AI (artificial intelligence), more recently the markets seem to be looking at a trifecta of better macro trends: The Fed and other global central banks may be...
158 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: Stocks have rallied sharply off of the October bear-market low, recouping the majority of the 26% decline between January and October of last year.Trends in jobless claims, labor turnover and hourly earnings are, in our estimation,...
234 views, By Edward Jones
At 3%, CPI is now just one-third of where it peaked a year ago.
248 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: After a strong first two quarters of 2023, markets stumbled a bit as we entered the first week of the third quarter.
284 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: Last week closed the books on the first half of 2023. The headliner: it was a strong start. Though gains so far may have flown somewhat under the radar for some investors as the scars of 2022 may not yet have fully healed.
204 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: As investors approach the mid-year point for 2023, there are a few notable trends to highlight: First, the markets overall continue to be remarkably resilient.
270 views, By Edward Jones
Key Takeaways: The Fed kept rates unchanged last week, a move we think was appropriate, as inflation is on a downward path and the economy is showing signs of softening.We don't think this confirms the end of rate hikes, but instead offers an opportunity.
138 views, By Edward Jones
The S&P 500 is up about 20% from its mid-October lows, a threshold that could indicate a new bull market.We think the foundation of a new bull market is formed, but an economic slowdown is still possibly ahead of us.
205 views, By Edward Jones
Last week closed the market's books on May and opened the curtain on the latest reading on the jobs market. The former was benign, with the S&P 500 rising a modest 0.4% on the month1.
304 views, By Edward Jones
While stock markets were broadly flat this past week, one sector stood out in that it was up over 4.0% for the week: information technology1.
156 views, By Edward Jones
Key takeaways: The path ahead for the economy is in the hands of the consumer, given 70% of U.S. GDP comes from personal consumption. Consumers have been quite resilient of late, but data confirm that consumers are beginning to get a bit winded.

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