Independent AI Lab Anchors Its Forecasts Into Bitcoin and Publishes the Full Track Record

BERLIN - July 11, 2026 - PRLog -- NeuPortal, an independent AI forecasting lab, today released its complete forecasting dataset under an open license and formalized a standing public accountability experiment. The project addresses a question that most predictive-analytics claims never answer: were the forecasts genuinely made in advance, and how accurate are they compared with the market?

Every NeuPortal forecast is a calibrated probability produced before the event begins. Before it can be edited, each forecast is hashed and timestamped into the Bitcoin blockchain using OpenTimestamps, an open standard that makes back-dating impossible for anyone — including NeuPortal itself. At the same instant, the lab records the corresponding prediction-market price as a benchmark. After the event resolves, both the forecast and the market are graded with the Brier score, a standard measure of probabilistic accuracy that NeuPortal committed to publicly before its first logged forecast.

The results are published in full, including the cases where the market is more accurate. Across the first 15 logged forecasts, the prediction-market benchmark has recorded the better Brier score on nine, and NeuPortal's model on four. The lab describes this transparency — losses included — as the central point of the exercise rather than a footnote to it.

The methodology is deliberately conventional and reproducible. Football-match forecasts use an independent double-Poisson goal model whose scoring-rate parameters are set from documented team facts rather than fitted to market prices. The full dataset — forecasts, timestamps, market benchmarks and scores — is archived on Zenodo (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21294229) and mirrored on GitHub (neuportalai-ui/experiment-proofs), where the cryptographic proofs can be independently verified.

NeuPortal plans to extend the same locked-and-timestamped method to additional domains, including economic indicators, weather, and other measurable public events.

About NeuPortal
NeuPortal is an independent AI forecasting lab focused on verifiable, transparent prediction. Its public experiment and live scoreboard are available at https://neuportal.ai/experiment.

Media contact: Alex Malinowski, Founder — neuportalai@gmail.com — https://neuportal.ai

Disclaimer: NeuPortal is an educational transparency and research project. Its forecasts are published for informational and educational purposes only. They are not financial advice, and not a betting tip.