Creative Investment Research Forecasts September CPI at 3.3%

WASHINGTON - Oct. 23, 2025 - PRLog -- Creative Investment Research today issued its forecast ahead of the delayed release of the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), now scheduled for October 24, 2025, by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CIR projects that headline CPI will increase 3.3% year-over-year, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) will rise 3.2%. This marks a modest acceleration from August's 2.9% headline and 3.1% core inflation readings.

"Inflation remains stubbornly high — and tariffs are a key reason," said William Michael Cunningham, Economist and CEO of Creative Investment Research. "Tariff-related price pressures are showing up across durable goods like furniture, appliances, and building materials. These costs are hitting small businesses hard, especially Black and minority-owned firms with less pricing power and higher credit costs."

Tariffs Fuel "Sticky" Inflation

CIR's new CPI Trend and Tariff Impact Report identifies sectors where import costs are adding heat to inflation:

Category Tariff Impact on Prices (YoY %)   Consumer Price Pass-Through (%)

Furniture & Home Goods   9.5          65
Appliances & Electronics    7.8          70
Auto Parts          6.2          55
Textiles & Apparel          5.4          50
Building Materials          4.8          45

These tariff-driven price increases are offsetting improvements in energy and wage-related costs, creating what Cunningham calls "tariff-stickiness" — a dynamic where policy-induced supply costs prevent inflation from returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Implications for the Federal Reserve

The delayed CPI report will play a critical role in the Fed's upcoming rate decision. A 3.3% inflation reading could delay interest rate cuts originally expected later this year, maintaining high borrowing costs for small firms.

"The Fed is caught in a policy bind," Cunningham noted. "They can't cut rates aggressively while tariffs are inflating goods prices. That means small, minority-owned firms face continued cost pressure and limited credit relief."

Impact on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

According to CIR, inflation affects minority-owned firms through three main channels:

1. Rising Input Costs: Tariffs make imported supplies, materials, and equipment more expensive.
2. Higher Financing Costs: With the Fed likely to delay cuts, small business loans remain costly.
3. Eroded Consumer Demand: Inflation reduces real purchasing power, particularly among lower-income and minority consumers.

"Persistent inflation is not just a macroeconomic issue — it's a racial equity issue," Cunningham emphasized. "Without relief, the inflation gap will widen between large and small businesses, undermining the nation's progress on inclusive economic growth."

For more, see: https://www.impactinvesting.online/2025/10/inflation-stil...