Creative Investment Research Releases Forecast for September 2025 Unemployment Numbers

WASHINGTON - Oct. 3, 2025 - PRLog -- Creative Investment Research today released its September 2025 Unemployment Forecast, expanding analysis across race, sex, and age groups. The forecast projects slight increases in unemployment for most demographics, with Black women, Hispanic/Latina women, and White men expected to see modest but meaningful upticks.

The analysis follows broad-based increases in August unemployment rates, which rose across nearly every group except Asians. Momentum from August, seasonal labor patterns, and continuing volatility in specific sectors suggest that September will remain challenging.

Key Forecasts (Seasonally Adjusted, %)

• Black Women (20+): Aug 6.7% → Sep 6.9% (higher)
• Hispanic/Latina Women (20+): Aug 4.9% → Sep 5.0% (slightly higher)
• White Men (20+): Aug 3.7% → Sep 3.8% (slightly higher)
• Overall (20+ years): Aug 4.2% → Sep 4.3% (slightly higher)

Other groups, including Black men, Hispanic men, and White women, are projected to experience flat-to-higher unemployment rates. Asian unemployment, which declined in August, is forecasted to remain flat at 3.6%.

Risks and Uncertainties

The forecast notes significant risks on both sides:

• Downside risk: Retail weakness, layoffs, or continued survey distortions could push Black and Hispanic women's unemployment higher than expected.
• Upside potential: Stronger education and healthcare hiring may offset weaknesses, holding rates steady or slightly lower.

Importantly, the government shutdown delays the release of the official September Employment Situation report. In addition, questions remain about the integrity of the official numbers, given ongoing revisions, survey nonresponse, and changes in population controls.

Quote

"Our September 2025 unemployment forecast underscores the unequal burden carried by women of color in the labor market," said William Michael Cunningham, economist at Creative Investment Research. "The data point to a persistent fragility in employment for Black and Hispanic women, even as the Fed has begun to ease rates. Policy and business leaders must take note: labor market equity remains unfinished work."

See: https://www.impactinvesting.online/2025/10/september-2025...

For additional details, the full September 2025 Unemployment Forecast report and presentation are available upon request.

About Creative Investment Research

Creative Investment Research (CIR) is an independent economic analysis and impact investing advisory firm specializing in labor markets, minority business development, and sustainable finance. CIR has a long track record of pioneering research on employment, diversity, and capital access.