Economist Accurately Forecasts July Surge in Black Unemployment

WASHINGTON - Aug. 2, 2025 - PRLog -- Economist William Michael Cunningham, founder of Creative Investment Research, accurately forecasted the sharp rise in Black unemployment reflected in the July 2025 jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). His predictions—issued days before the official data—highlight a growing crisis in Black labor market conditions and the value of culturally informed, independent economic forecasting.

In his July 28th forecast, Cunningham predicted a continuation of the steep rise in Black male unemployment and a reversal in the misleading decline in Black women's unemployment. These forecasts were confirmed in the official July data:

🔍 Black Men: Unemployment Up

• Forecast: 7.1%
• Actual: 7.0%
• Black male unemployment rose again—from 6.9% in June to 7.0% in July, following a dramatic spike from 5.2% in May. This two-month jump represents one of the largest increases outside of the COVID-19 crisis in over a decade.

👩🏾 Black Women: Job Losses Up

• Forecast: 6.4%
• Actual: 6.3%
• While the unemployment rate for Black women dropped from 6.2% in May to 5.8% in June, it rose again to 6.3% in July—just shy of the 6.4% forecast by Cunningham. This uptick confirms that prior declines were driven by workforce exits rather than real gains in employment.

"These numbers validate not just our analysis, but our broader concern that Black workers—especially women—are being left behind," said Cunningham. "We identified these risks before the data was released because we follow the lived experience of Black communities and understand the systemic patterns shaping their outcomes. This isn't just about accuracy—it's about centering the economic realities of Black communities that are too often ignored. Our independent analysis continues to lead the conversation."

📌 Supporting Analysis:

• Forecast (July 28, 2025):
  "What to Expect from Friday's Jobs Report" (https://www.impactinvesting.online/2025/07/what-to-expect...)
• Follow-up Analysis (August 2, 2025):
  "Black Unemployment in July 2025: Job Losses Continue" (https://www.impactinvesting.online/2025/08/black-unemploy...)

Cunningham's work underscores the importance of race-aware economic market monitoring and community-grounded economic expertise in forecasting the real conditions affecting marginalized populations.

Contact:
William Michael Cunningham
Creative Investment Research
📧 info@creativeinvest.com
📞 202-455-0430