Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field in new measure of political advocacy
Call it the anti-poll. A new methodology developed by the data analytics company, Temmpo, measures the advocacy behind political candidates.
By: Temmpo / BrandVO2
That would have told a very different story than polls which pegged Mrs. Clinton's chance of winning anywhere from anywhere from 70% to 99% and also made her a heavy favorite to win key states like Pennsylvania that eventually went to Donald Trump.
Looking at the current Democratic Presidential field, Temmpo shows Bernie Sanders holding a 10 point lead over the Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and, surprisingly, Andrew Yang. Yang generates strong advocacy and could be a dark horse to watch in the coming months. This paints a different picture than current polls which have Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden as the two Democratic front runners and Andrew Yang trailing far behind in low single digits.
Polling is often more art than science. It relies on the stated opinions of voters and a methodology that asks people what they think. Temmpo doesn't ask questions. It measures what voters do by looking at online conversations and the intensity of what people say.
This approach quantifies the nature of language itself, using mathematical models and linguistic markers to understand not just the tonnage of conversations about a candidate but also the advocacy for that candidate. Strong advocacy is closely associated with actually voting and, more importantly, telling friends and family members to back the same candidate.
"By looking at the strength of language surrounding a political candidate, Temmpo measures advocacy. The stronger the language, the more likely a voter is actually going to vote and to back a candidate," said, Temmpo CEO, Mark Wysong. "In this new methodology, no voters are being recruited to give their opinions. Our data is gathered from popular sentiment."
"So often political campaigns fly blind," said Wysong. "They have a superficial understanding as to why a particular candidate generates advocacy or even what topics motivate the most engagement. We are changing all of that and we're doing it without a single market research question."
Temmpo is a data analytics company that structures online word-of-mouth into meaningful insights and analytics. Our system measures advocacy and attachment of consumers to brands and politicians to better predict what people will actually do – versus say they will do.