Reliance Trading Co. Limited – US Markets – The Week Ahead – Economic Calendar

After a turbulent week for stocks, the markets are facing another potentially volatile week as the trade war and key economic data take center stage.
By: Reliance Trading Co. Limited
WAN CHAI, Hong Kong - Aug. 12, 2019 - PRLog -- Investors will be monitoring any additional escalations or developments regarding the U.S.-China trade war and currency war. Until last week, many economists were optimistic about the overall health of the U.S. economy. However, President Donald Trump's announcement that the U.S. would be slapping 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods has started to change some economists' positions.

Inflation: Still below target

The key data being released this week could provide some insight into the current state of the economy. CPI inflation data for July is scheduled to be released Tuesday, and July retail sales data will be released Thursday.

Economists polled by Bloomberg are expecting core CPI to have risen 0.2% from June and 2.1% from the same period last year.

Retail sales: Positive spending should continue

Investors will shift their focus to retail sales for July on Thursday. As other parts of the economy, such as manufacturing, get hit by the trade war, consumer spending has remained a bright spot and the main driver of GDP growth in the U.S.

Economic calendar

Monthly Budget Statement, July (-$120 billion expected, -$76.9 billion in June)

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, July (104.2 expected, 103.3 in June); CPI month-on-month, July (+0.3% expected, +0.1% in June); CPI excluding Food & Energy month-on-month, July (+0.2% expected, +0.3% in June); CPI year-on-year, July (+1.7% expected, +1.6% in June)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended August 9 (5.3% prior); Import Price Index month-on-month, July (-0.1% expected, -0.9% in June)

Thursday: Empire Manufacturing, August (1.9 expected, 4.3 in July); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, August (10.0 expected, 21.8 in July); Retail Sales Advance month-on-month, July (+0.3% expected, +0.4% in June); Retail Sales excluding Auto month-on-month, July (+0.4% expected, +0.4% in June); Retail Sales excluding Auto and Gas, July (+0.5% expected, +0.7% in June); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended August 10 (212,000 expected, 209,000 prior); Industrial Production month-on-month, July (+0.1% expected, 0.0% in June); Capacity Utilization, July (77.9% expected, 77.9% in June); Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week ended August 11 (62.9 prior); Net Long-term TIC Flows, June ($3.5 billion prior); Total Net TIC Flows, June ($32.9 billion prior)

Friday: Housing Starts, July (1.255 million expected, 1.253 million in June); Building Permits, July (1.270 million expected, 1.232 million in June revised); University of Michigan Sentiment, August (97.4 expected, 98.4 in July)

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