Altrice Investment Co. Limited – The Week Ahead – What to Watch
This week comes with a handful of events with market-moving potential.
"Vice Chair Clarida has represented the more dovish side of the FOMC over the past several months, and he should continue to sound very cautious on the global outlook and stress patience given muted inflation. He may suggest allowing a significant overshoot before hiking again. If asked, he is likely to concede there are rate cut scenarios, but not that likely in his view," Altrice Investments wrote in a note on Friday.
Wednesday will be the busiest day of the week. First, the Labor Department will be releasing CPI data for March. CPI is often looked to as a key inflation gauge. Economists polled by Bloomberg are expecting core CPI to have risen 0.2% from last month and 2.1% from last year.
"A rebound in energy prices is likely to have pushed headline inflation back up towards 2% in March, but core inflation should have remained well contained," Altrice continued in a note on Friday. "We don't expect gasoline prices to continue rising, however, particularly not when global growth is slowing, so headline inflation should drop back again over the coming months."
Also on Wednesday, executives from the big banks head to Capitol Hill to testify before the House Committee of Financial Services at 9 a.m. ET. The official list of execs attending has not been released, but it is expected that Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are slated to attend.
Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) March meeting will be released at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Market watchers will be looking for clues on just how dovish the Fed has gotten. More details regarding the balance sheet are unlikely, according to Altrice analysts. "The minutes are likely to show peak dovishness in terms of nervousness about the outlook. Balance sheet details are unlikely," the company wrote. Furthermore, ING predicts that the Fed will "give some clues as to what it may take for the Fed to deviate from their current "patient" stance on monetary policy. We continue to look for stable rates through 2019."
Finally, earnings season kicks off on Friday with a few big banks reporting. JPMorgan, PNC Financial and Wells Fargo will be reporting before the opening bell. JPMorgan is expected to report earnings of $2.36 on $28.39 billion of revenue, while analysts expect PNC to report earnings of $2.61 per share on $4.27 billion of revenue. Wells Fargo is estimated to have earned $1.10 per share on $20.97 in revenue.
Wednesday: Delta Air Lines before market open; Bed Bath & Beyond after market close
Thursday: Rite Aid before market open
Friday: JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Wells Fargo before market open
Monday: Factory Orders, February (-0.4% expected, 0.1% prior); Durable Goods Orders, February (-0.2% prior); Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation, February (0.1% prior); Capital Goods Orders Nondefense excluding Air, February (-0.1% prior)
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, March (101.2 expected, 101.7 prior)
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending April 5 (18.6% prior); CPI month-on-month, March (0.3% expected, 0.2% prior); CPI excluding food and energy month-on-month, March (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior); CPI year-on-year, March (1.8% expected, 1.5% prior); Monthly Budget Statement, March (-$196.9 billion expected, -$234 billion prior)
Thursday: PPI Final Demand month-on-month, March (0.3% expected, 0.1% prior); PPI excluding food and energy month-on-month, March (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior); PPI Final Demand year-on-year, March (1.9% expected, 1.9% prior); PPI excluding food and energy year-on-year, March (2.4% expected, 2.5% prior); Initial Jobless Claims, week ending April 6 (202,000 prior); Continuing Claims, week ending March 30 (1.717 million prior); Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week ending April 7 (58.9 prior)
Friday: Import Price Index month-on-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.6% prior); University of Michigan Sentiment, April (98.0 expected, 98.4 prior)
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