Who Will Win the Next Indian MMRCA Fighter Competition

GURGAON, India - Feb. 19, 2019 - PRLog -- Air Mshl Anil Chopra, writes that the Indian Air Force (IAF) is all poised to hit yet another low and actually go below 30 fighter squadrons vis-a-vis the authorized 42. The Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas development and production continues to be a very slow work-in-progress. The Rafale aircraft will be handed over to the IAF from September 2019 onward and the planes will physically arrive in India to form squadrons only in 2020. The Request for Proposal (RFP) for the 110 new fighters may be issued earliest in six months time and, thereafter, the due acquisition process will kick-in, which has its own dynamics and timelines. The IAF desperately needs to arrest the numbers decline. The remaining MiG-21 squadrons cannot be sustained any further and must be retired.

The crisis has been 20 years in the making. The horrifying scenario would be if the IAF were to go down to 25 squadrons. The IAF is backing the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). It is trying to accelerate issue of RFP for the new fighter, also called MMRCA 2 by some.

Accelerate LCA

Only 11 LCA Mk1 aircraft have been delivered till date. It is likely that 14 aircraft will get delivered by 31 March 2019. The first squadron will get its 16 aircraft by September 2019. Currently, HAL has a single production line with capacity of 8 aircraft per year.

Additional Su-30 MKIs

The IAF currently has ordered 272 Su-30 MKIs, nearly 250 of which have been delivered. In view of the slow progress on LCA and the fact that MMRCA 2 could be around six years away, the IAF has little choice but to acquire a few more Su-30 MKIs. 40 additional aircraft are being contemplated. This would put the Su-30 MKI squadron strength at 14. That would mean nearly 45 per cent of the IAF.

Additional Rafales

Notwithstanding the political slugfest about the Rafale deal, there is unanimity on the technical and operational capability of the aircraft. With the initial 36 aircraft, infrastructural requirements for two full airbases has been contracted. Also, significant amount of money has been invested in India-specific upgrades. A good option to save time and get the squadron numbers would be to exercise the option of another two squadrons of Rafales. This could be clubbed with the Indian Navy's requirement of 57 twin-engine carrier-based aircraft. Rafale will also bring significant offsets that will benefit Indian industry.

MMRCA 2 Aircraft Matrix

The MMRCA 2 competitors are the same as for MMRCA 1 except for addition of Su-35. All are mostly proven, combat tested, legendary aircraft looking to extend into next few decades with state-of-the-art technologies imbibed from latest research. A few newer ones show promise, but have yet to really prove themselves. Technologies have had a quantum jump since MMRCA 1 and there are newer systems in most aircraft. Rafale is a known contracted entity. Lockheed Martin claims that the F-16 Block 70 has the latest radar and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities imbibed from the F-35 programme. Boeing is presenting the F-18 Advanced Super Hornet with extended range, better EW engagement and fuel efficiency.

Boeing intends to build in India with HAL and Mahindra. Like Dassault Rafale, Boeing will leverage its offer with another simultaneous tender for 57 carrier-borne fighters for the Indian Navy (IN).

Lockheed Martin is the world's largest military equipment manufacturer with F-22, C-130 and the F-35 in its arsenal. It has tied up with the Tata Group for production of the F-16 wings initially, and later the full aircraft in India. It is already producing and exporting significant parts of the S-92 helicopter cabin and aero-structures for C-130J.

RAC MiG's MiG-35 is an improved variant of the MiG-29 upgrade already flying in India. MiG-29s, both with IAF and IN, are facing maintenance and spares problems.

Su-35 is an improved variant of the Su-30. The IAF will get some of those features and technologies in the Su-30 MKI upgrade. Russians have traditionally offered aircraft at very low prices but the life cycle costs and low serviceability end up making them costlier in the long term.

The Eurofighter Typhoon had earlier lost the race to Rafale. 550 are flying around the world. No fresh orders seem coming. It is built by a consortium of multi-country vendors which adds its own dynamics.

Saab's Gripen E will reportedly have the more powerful General Electric F-414 engine and new avionics, but 30 per cent of systems remain of American origin and that can affect the follow-on support.

Fighter Selection and Contracting

The Request For information (RFI) for the 110 new fighter aircraft (about 75% single-seat and rest twin-seat aircraft), with 15% aircraft in flyaway state and the remaining 85% aircraft to be Made-in-India by a Strategic Partner or Indian Production Agency was floated in April 2018. Responses were received in July 2018. Preparation of Request for Proposal (RFP) began in all earnest. First stage requires a clear definition within the IAF HQ, where consultation takes place between operational, technical and plans branches. Stage 2 will be for incorporating suggestions of DRDO and production agencies such as HAL. Finally, the Technical Manager and others in MoD will vet the RFP. A clear intermediate requirement is the Acceptance of Necessity (AON). All the systems that have been evaluated in detail in MMRCA 1 stage need not be tested again in detail. The target should be to complete technical evaluation in one year even it means putting a larger team of test crew.

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