Just Released Fourth Quarter 2017 Leading Rental Income Markets

SAN FRANCISCO - Jan. 13, 2018 - PRLog -- The current number of markets in the "Sell Phase" is forty-eight, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES.  The number of markets in the "Buy Phase" is nineteen. Mr. Vollucci states, "This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Columbus, OH, Pittsburgh, PA and Scranton, PA. The three top sell are Boston, MA, Albuquerque, NM and Detroit, MI." according to Mr. Vollucci.

         In this edition of our "Market Cycles we find that the national vacancy rates in the third quarter 2017 were 7.5 percent for rental housing and 1.6 percent for homeowner housing . The rental vacancy rate of 7.5 percent was zero. 7 percentage points higher than the rate in the third quarter 2016 (6.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2017 (7.3 percent).

         The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.6 percent was 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2016 (1.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2017 (1.5 percent). The homeownership rate of 63.9 percent was not statistically different from the rates in the third quarter 2016 (63.5 percent) or the second quarter 2017 (63.7 percent).
         In December, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, was essentially unchanged over the month. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 926,000, respectively.
         In the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change.
         Among the unemployed, the number of new entrants decreased by 116,000 in December. New entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.5 million in December and accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 354,000.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, was unchanged over the month and over the year. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.1 percent in December but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the yearThe number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.9 million in December but was down by 639,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.          The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 60.4 percent in September and has increased by 0.6 percentage point over the past 12 months. The labor force participation rate, at 63.1 percent, changed little over the month and has shown little movement over the year.          The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed, at 5.1 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.
         According to Marcus & Millichap Potentially, higher borrowing costs, along with proposed changes to fiscal policy and the tax code, have raised uncertainty that influenced investor decisions. Preliminary first quarter estimates place multifamily property sales down 15 to 20 percent from the corresponding period in 2016. Although the pause in transactions is significant, it should be noted that sales last year were near record levels. Greater clarity on the range

of economic, tax and fiscal policy, changes could spark renewed investor activity.

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