16th January 2017, GTC Advisors – World Bank Release 2017 Growth Forecast
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GENEVA, Switzerland - Jan. 16, 2017 - PRLog -- Late last week the World Bank released its much anticipated Global Growth Forecast.
After what many felt was a poor year with regards to global performance the World Bank looks set to raise its forecast for 2017.
2016 saw just 2.3% growth globally, a figure they suggest will be surpassed in 2017.
Citing emerging markets and developing economies as they key benefactors in 2017 they raised their forecast to 2.7% for the year.
As the US looks to continue its program to normalize rates over the coming year there are expectations that some constraints on emerging and developing economies and their ability to access funding will become harder to attain for some and more expensive for others. What will benefit these economies is the probability that commodity prices will continue to increase as many of these countries export these products they should be able to offset some of the additional expenses.
The two main emerging markets, Russia and Brazil should start to see some more significant growth, Russia due to the possibility of a reduction in sanctions and Brazil due to the increased prices in specific commodities.
As the global recover continues after the financial crisis of 2008, the World Bank expects growth to start to edge back to pre-crisis levels.
Developed countries are likely to seem far slower growth than the rest of the globe as several key economies have major elections or polls in the coming months.
The European Union is still looking to understand the ramifications of the UK vote to leave the EU and the world is watching to see what will be President Elect, Mr. Trumps first key policy changes will be.
It is impossible to guess what will be the US's foreign policy over the next few weeks and it would be, however many analysts believe it will open up the markets for fair trade as opposed to free trade agreements which according to the newly elected president are hampering the US's growth model.
There are key elections in France, Germany and Italy to name but a few and the current sentiment of the European Union as a downtrodden, failed social experiment will continue to resonate unless the powers that be are able to put the region back on track.
With a growth of just 1.8% predicted for developed countries, there are many that feel the first quarter of 2017 will be a significant guide as to how the rest of the year will play out.
In a few days the IMF will release their first growth forecast for 2017. Although the 2 institutions report on the same demographics, they use very different metrics and it will be interesting to see how different the International Monetary Fund's forecast will be against the World Banks.
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