Brexit Would Bloat Voting Power of Some EU Countries

Britain's Exit From the EU Would Leave Many Countries Even More Under Represented
 
 
The Banzhaf Index Is The Generally Accepted Method For Calculating Voting Power
The Banzhaf Index Is The Generally Accepted Method For Calculating Voting Power
WASHINGTON - June 20, 2016 - PRLog -- If the UK leaves the European Union [Brexit], it would, in addition to many other effects, substantially increase the voting power of major countries such as Germany and France, and cause a corresponding further reduction in voting power of most of the smaller countries in the EU, says the professor who invented the modern method for calculating voting power.

        For example, until recently, France and Germany together had a combined voting power of 17.5%.  The Lisbon treaty in 2009 increased that to 25.7%, and Brexit would further increase it to almost 30%.

        Altogether this represents a more than 70% increase in voting power, including a 16% increase if Britain in fact leaves - a major change in voting power which many citizens of the EU may not even realize is occurring.

        As just reported in an article entitled "Brexit and EU Power Distribution," voting power - as calculated using the "Banzhaf Index of Voting Power" - is of crucial importance because it is directly related to "the probability that a [member country] is able to turn a policy in his interest or to obtain a share of a budget."

        Law Professor John Banzhaf - who is best known for his antismoking activities in banning cigarette commercials, prohibiting smoking in a growing number of workplaces and public places both here and abroad, and including a 50% smoker surcharge under Obamacare  - developed the Banzhaf Index to successfully show that many weighted voting systems at the time were unconstitutional.

        He later used it to demonstrate that, under the Electoral College, voters in the most populous states have far more voting power than those in less populous states.

        Other have used it in a variety of situations, including explaining recent British elections.

        These new calculations are very important, says Banzhaf, because they represent a significant and largely secret shift in voting power on this very powerful body.

        If Britain does leave the EU, the members may want to consider whether they are happy with this apparent disparity in voting power, or want to make any further changes to adjust for this new development if it in fact occurs.

JOHN F. BANZHAF III, B.S.E.E., J.D., Sc.D.
Professor of Public Interest Law
George Washington University Law School,
FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor,
Fellow, World Technology Network,
Founder, Action on Smoking and Health (ASH)
2000 H Street, NW, Wash, DC 20052, USA
(202) 994-7229 // (703) 527-8418
http://banzhaf.net/  jbanzhaf@law.gwu.edu  @profbanzhaf

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