Monex BMO Securities - China's Future Policy on Debt - Changes to National Policy?

Unlike orthodox methods that western financial investors might use to get a reading on economic policy such as dissecting the notes of Federal Reserve meetings or inspecting Mario Draghi's reports, in Chinese financial circles there is a growing wave of opinion that recommends reading up on an "economic prophet's" anonymous statements in a well known communist publication, the People's Daily.
NEW YORK - May 16, 2016 - PRLog -- Not for the first time, a lengthy interview with the unknown authority was published, suggesting the changes to national policy needed to right the debt issues of China's economy. As with similar articles in the paper, the interviewee looked to expound on what he presented as muddled views on national policy plans.

The summary is as follows: China won't be capable of borrowing its way out of the huge debt it's found itself in. This sentiment seems in sharp contrast with what investors had thought up until very recently: a record hike in credit that has helped balance the national books.

"It may be important and could signal a policy shift for the nation's economic authorities," said David Knightly, Head of Institutional Equities, Trading and Research for Monex BMO Securities.

This article should be seen as a consensus view of the economic authorities at the highest level rather than the meandering thoughts of a single person. It appeared on newspaper real estate usually reserved for the President himself. This is not a new method as the newspaper used anonymous articles such as this going all the way back to the leadership of Mao Zedong.

The article, printed early in the week, seems to reaffirm the promise by the current President Xi and his chief economic officers that borrowing, so often relied upon by past leaders, will be severely curbed. Some western experts were more wary of the article, not knowing how seriously to take it.

Monex BMO Securities

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