The Ultimate NCAA Brackets Probability Odds and Statistics for Perfect Bracket Predictions

Finally the Last True Statistical Probability #'s for an ALL 64 correct outcome predictions in any NCAA Bracket Pool as analyzed by Four Math, Odds and Actuarial risk experts as compiled by
By: Hole-in-WON
March Madness bracket contests odds
March Madness bracket contests odds
NEW YORK - March 12, 2016 - PRLog -- Many people have written, seen statistical probabilities about what the odds are for completing a perfect NCAA Basketball Bracket Selection Pool or Contest and the most common generally are one of these versions:

   A1A.) The Flip a Coin - 50/50 outocome, which we will call "The Warren Buffett" version          because he has used this formula in previous contests and articles.

From here we will "turn it up three notches" using three leading mathamaticians ending in the LAST and GREATEST "truest odds" for NCAA Bracket Predictions PRIOR to the first tip off, after this point you are past posting ( you have been to a race track before ) and your pool selection probably goes into the shredder but for all intents and purposes this is "as good as it gets" before 1st Tip-Off.

In the Warren Buffet method where all NCAA games / teams are considered equal, the odds of selecting a perfect bracket are a staggering 1 in 9.2 Quintillion. We don't even know what a Quintillion is, but rest assued some __________ ( fill in your home state ) politician has already spent it.

In turning it up 1 notch, Duke Math Professor Jonathan Mattingly realized that no 16th seed has ever beat a # 1 Seed ( meaning your bracket should have four guaranteed wins ) and in adjusting odds /probability based on that premise, they calculate out to 1 in 2.4 trillion.

Turning it up 2 notches, where assuming the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection, than an over served 3 in the AM __________ ( fill in your favorite partying celebrity ) based on team strength of schedule, power rankings, and head to head match up knowledge. DePaul University mathematician Jay Bergen using a different formula, calculated the odds at one in 128 billion.

In the Hole in One Insurance Putting Contest Statistical Creator, their "Hired Gun" David M. Walczak of University of St. Thomas and  Accredited Actuary was supplied with all the winning % statistics on how higher seeds fared against lowers seeds until we got to the Warren Buffet level of 50/50 flipping a coin, which you can ( almost do ) starting at Sweet 16. David surmised with the guidance of Touchdown Jesus ( oops sorry wrong sport ) that using a little NCAA basketball number crunching leverage such as knowing a # 6 seed in the second round only has a 52.6% chance of advancing are . . . DRUM ROLL . . . 105 billion to 1.

Enjoy the Hoop action  Best of Luck and . . . . .

If you would like more on other sports contests of skill supplied by such as 3/4 1/2 court Basketball Shots seen on ESPN, Putting Contests, Putting Series of Putts, Hole in One Insurance, Soccer Kick to hit the Crossbar, Free Throw with a Paper Airplane, Hockey Shot Face off dot to face off dot, and Digital Contests with all Social Media check out our web site at

and for Dave's NCAA statistics go to: Daves NCAA Perfect Bracket Odds

and for numbers almost as high, look up what a New York Fan Season ticket holder pays in your favorite sport. :)

David Walczak Consultant to: Hole in One Insurance


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