IndiaPowerTrading.info Achieves Huge Improvement On Day-Ahead Market Price Forecast For Holidays

Jan. 29, 2016 - PRLog -- New Delhi: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”) is pleased to announce achievement of a significant milestone in its endeavour to provide pathbreaking price forecasting services in the Indian short-term market. IndiaPowerTrading.info successfully improved upon the accuracy of its forecasting model for  clearing price in the day-ahead market on holidays.

The IPT Economics and Data Sciences team achieved 85% accuracy in forecasting the clearing price at the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) during peak hours for delivery of 26 January 2015. This is a significant improvement over the price forecast accuracy of 50% on the previous major national holiday of 25 December 2015 (Christmas).

While sharing details of the achievement of this marked improvement in forecast accuracy, IPT Chief Economist Chandan Kumar said, “the DAM Price Forecast model has adapted over last 3 months and improved the accuracy even on holidays despite a fall in demand. We achieved an accuracy of approximately 85% during peak hours on Republic Day i.e. 26th January as compared to just over 50% during peak hours on Diwali last year i.e. 11th November. Although percentage decline in peak hour demand on Diwali was higher than that on Republic Day. With inclusion of various external parameters such as impact of holidays, smoothening of outliers etc, we aim to achieve higher accuracy consistently.”

Giving a glimpse of what went behind this crucial exercise, IPT Data Scientist Simon Kuttruf said, “Leveraging the power of artificial intelligence approaches, our forecasting model has proven to be highly adaptive to changing market conditions such as a sudden decline in electricity demand during the national holiday of 26 January. We continue to refine our algorithms with elaborate integration of relevant external variables and suitable data processing techniques.”

Subscribers of IndiaPowerTrading.info receive price forecast reports every evening before the trading session in the day-ahead market the next day.

“The significant improvement in the price forecast accuracy on national holidays will help us provide better service to our customers. We expect to create new benchmarks soon by incorporating the effects of various external parameters to further improve upon the forecast accuracy,” said Saurabh Shrivastava, Product Manager-IndiaPowerTrading.info.