Experts: Probability of visa-free regime between EU and Turkey approaches zero

Oct. 28, 2015 - PRLog -- The European Union is ready to offer Turkey an accelerated path to giving its citizens visa-free travel in return for Turkish help with the migration crisis, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, stated after the EU Summit in Brussels, Belgium, on October 15, 2015.

“We have agreed with our Turkish partners that the visa liberalization process will be accelerated. This does not mean that we would step away from the basic criteria, which are the rules in that domain. There will be no other criteria for Turkey and we will assess progress in spring 2016,” he said in a conversation with journalists.

In turn, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that the EU intends to allocate about 3 billion euros to help Turkey in curbing the flow of Syrian refugees in Europe.

“Turkey has assumed great responsibility for the reception of refugees. We know that Turkey has not received sufficient financial support from the EU. We are ready to share the burden with Turkey,” the German politician said.

Meanwhile, according to the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Ankara wants fresh cash in a sum to be reviewed each year.

“We’re talking about a 3 billion euro amount in the first stage. But we don’t want to fixate on this because the requirements may go up, and the assessment for this would need to be done annually,” he stated.

However, Ankara hopes that Turkish citizens will be able to visit the EU countries without visas as soon as next summer.

“We hope that both Schengen and readmission agreements will go into effect in July 2016,” said Ahmet Davutoglu, expressing hopes that Turkey will soon proudly hold a place in the EU family photo.

Commenting on the situation, Josef Janning, Head of Berlin office and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that the chances of the abolition of the visa regime between the two sides are pretty dim.

“Turkey would need to deliver strongly on the control of refugee flows and be seen as sticking to that policy to see a visa-free regime. Also, inflow from other countries needs to come under control. The role of Turkey would be different if refugees from Syria now in Lebanon or Jordan would take different routes to come to Europe, thus neutralizing some of the effect of a changing Turkish policy. Likely, an easing of the visa requirements for a range of professions can be achieved [in 2016],” he said in an interview with “PenzaNews” agency.

Meanwhile, according to him, the EU countries have signaled that they would give consideration to a comprehensive package of measures in return for a better control of migration flows at the Turkish borders.

“Part of that is financial aid to Turkey in dealing with the refugee burden. EU countries would like Turkey to open its labor market to refugees and to also think about the possibility of naturalizing refugees to become regular citizens of Turkey. Both issues are not popular in Turkey. Recognition of its status and financial assistance is popular and the Turkish government is likely to move in that direction,” the expert explained.

He added that the visa issue is going to take much longer.

“Since it affects the Schengen area, a change in the visa regime needs to be approved by all Schengen-countries. So far, the EU has signaled readiness to move on the issue but within the margins of its current visa policies,” Josef Janning said.

In his opinion, the situation is complicated by the fact that Turkey will expect more from Europe than just a quid pro quo on refugees.

“Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to secure that Turkey will play a significant role in any considerations and negotiations about the war in Syria. Also, Turkey seeks from Europe recognition and support as a regional power in the emerging power struggle with Iran and Saudi Arabia over order in the Middle East,” the expert noted.

In turn, Yevgeny Satanovsky, political scientist, orientalist scholar, economist, President of the Middle East Institute, suggested that the main objective of the Turkish government is not the opening of borders but getting the financial aid.

“It’s not about the abolition of visas, which is highly unlikely given the current situation in the Middle East. Ankara needs to knock out the money for refugees from Europe by blackmailing the EU with migrants: the flow of migrants through Greece is organized by Turkey,” the analyst said.

However, according to him, in practice this will lead nowhere.

“Turkey will not achieve acceleration of the abolition of visas with the EU. They may want whatever they like but the probability is approaching zero,” the analyst stressed.

Moreover, in his opinion, the prospects for Ankara’s bid to join the European Union are also low.

“After the recent visit of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Brussels, Angela Merkel once again said that she does not see Turkey a member of the EU. The issue was de facto taken off the table for a long time, if not forever,” Yevgeny Satanovsky said.

According to Sharbatullo Sodikov, researcher at the Analytical Center of MGIMO, expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, joining the EU for Turkey is not a long-term strategy or a diplomatic game, but an anti-Russian political attack.

Full text news agency "PenzaNews":http://penzanews.ru/en/opinion/59817-2015