Phoenix Scottsdale Arizona Real Estate Stats For October

Oct. 23, 2014 - PRLog -- Commentary by Tom Ruff. Permitted to reprint Contributed by Arizona Regional MLS

As we expected, there were no surprises this month.

Sales volume in September came

in as expected while prices remained flat. Sales volume for this year had been running 14% lower

than 2013, but the sales volume this month was only 1% lower than September 2013. There were

6,252 sales this September compared to 6,314 sales for September 2013. Keep in mind there were 21

working days this September compared to 20 working days in September 2013. Discounting the number

of working days, the year-over-year sales volumes were very similar.

With year-over-year sales volumes being in lockstep, we are afforded a clear picture of the year-over year changes in sales composition. Normal/traditonal sales are up, distressed/investor sales are

down. With September defined as more of the same, I thought it would be a perfect tme to do some

additional number crunching based on a question I saw on Facebook.

The Facebook question went something like this:

“What’s the difference in sales prices between using a Realtor and selling a home via FSBO.” The question started a chain of calculations where we went

from exploring off-market sales (see: Using a Subscriber vs. Not ) to where we ended up calculations

􀆟ng the added value of using an ARMLS Subscriber (see: The Value of a Subscriber).

First, taking the question at face value, it’s a series of calculations and simple enough. But diving

deeper it’s a question spawned by the constant threat REALTORS® perceive when a disruptive real

estate venture moves into the market. Predictions of the demise of the real estate industry rain down

whenever a new real estate venture, new business model or syndication du jour launches. Everything

is going to be okay. The REALTOR® / MLS model isn’t going anywhere, the numbers have your back.

ARMLS® STAT OCTOBER 2014

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Using a Subscriber vs. Not

Second, the calculation is possible as The Information Market compiles public records data and then

matches it to MLS data, giving us a unique database. We looked at single-family sales this year from

January to September for Maricopa and Pinal counties. We removed new construction as our comparison

will be of the resale market. Here are the findings:

·  83.76% of all resale homes sold using an ARMLS® Subscriber and the MLS

·  90% of all resale homes that sold over the median price used an ARMLS® Subscriber and the MLS

·  Single men are slightly less likely to use a Subscriber and the MLS but did 82.53% of the 􀆟me

·  Single women fit the norm using a Subscriber and the MLS 84% of the 􀆟me

·  Married couples are more likely to use a Subscriber and the MLS at 86.08% of the 􀆟me

Fix & flip investors used an ARMLS® Subscriber 84.34% of the 􀆟me. These investors clearly know how

to value property as their livelihood depends on buying low and selling high. They don’t need an agent

to tell them property values but they need a Subscriber to ensure arms-length transactions.

This should be a shock to you!

The perception of many is that they don’t use REALTORS®.

The Value of a Subscriber

Subscribers were used in 84% of transactions – but did they add value? It would be easy but flawed to

look at the median and average sales prices of MLS vs. Non-MLS sales. To show why, we did the calculations for August with new construction and distressed properties removed:

The numbers above are flawed because it is more common for owners at lower price points to attempt

a FBSO while it is less common for FSBOs to be attempted at higher price points. This is a natural bias

we must account for.

Non-MLS MLS Difference

Median Sales Price $161,000 $218,000 + 35%

Average Sales Price $210,537 $271,716 + 29%

Price per SqFt: $107.15 $126.26 + 17.8%

ARMLS® STAT OCTOBER 2014

There is a fair solution to remove the bias, by using the Full Cash Value Ratio (FCVR), where we compare

the sold price versus the county tax assessor’s value. A property that was valued at $100,000 by

the assessor and sold for $100,000 would have a FCVR of 100%. In our calculation, the FCVR acts like

an index, giving a more accurate picture when we make our comparison. Looking at the same August

sales for single-family homes and removing new construction and distressed properties we feel confident in saying using an ARMLS® Subscriber increases value for the seller by 9.6%.

The Pending Price Index

The PPI projected the median sales price in September to be $190,000 with the actual median price

coming in at $194,000. Home prices can best be described as stable and flat. Our sales volume projection for September came within 1.6%. We projected 6,150 sales and the actual sales for the month landed at 6,252. Our projections have been trending slightly more pessimistic than the actual reported results.

Looking ahead, the ARMLS® Pending Price Index is projecting declines in both the median sales price

as well as the average sales price. Anticipated declines in October can be attributed to modest downward pricing pressure as well as seasonable patterns. We’re projecting a median sales price of

$191,000 with sales volume of 5,850.

Maureen Karpinski

Find your Phoenix Arizona Property at http://www.cactuscountryproperty.com/city/phoenix

Posted by Cactus Country Arizona Homes & Properties http://www.cactuscountryproperty.com