Russia-EU sanction conflict impact: expert opinion

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Aug. 29, 2014 - PRLog -- A one-year food import ban decree signed on August 6, 2014, by Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, caused massive backlash among the European farmers, as well as foreign politicians and analysts.

The decree bans the import of certain foods, such as beef, pork, poultry and chicken, fruit, vegetables, fish, cheeses, milk and milk-based products, from the USA, Australia, Canada, Norway and the EU member-states. The detailed list of products covered by the food ban was announced by Dmitry Medvedev, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, on August 7.

Several days after the signature date, the officials removed certain products from the list, such as lactose-free milk, salmon and trout fry, seeding potatoes, onions, hybrid sweet corn and peas, as well as nutritional supplements.

The Russian counter-sanctions caused a severe impact on exporters and food producers from Greece, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Finland, Norway, Spain and other countries.

The European authorities have announced a financial program to aid the farmers hurt by the food ban, such as producers of peaches, nectarines, other fruit and vegetables, and milk products; but several foreign analysts, as well as the food producers themselves, say that these measures will not be sufficient to help the companies.

However, Juha Väätänen, professor at Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland, suggested that the effect from the Russian sanctions was the strongest only during the first days after their introduction, while in the long term most European producers will be able to move to other markets.

“Europe is the biggest exporter of food in the world, and sanctions by Russia are valued at 3% for the Europe for export. In Europe, the scale of sanctions is very small, but some countries are suffering a lot,” the analyst said in an interview to “PenzaNews” agency.

According to him, Moscow’s actions will not push the EU towards lifting the sanctions, since the latter were imposed because of the Ukrainian conflict.

“From the European perspective, the sanctions are linked to the situation in Ukraine. And now, when Russia declared sanctions at the European Union, the EU is not doing anything, because the situation in Ukraine hasn’t changed. So the EU is not responding to the economic sanctions from Russia, because Europe doesn’t see an economic problem: they see a political problem based in Ukraine,” Juha Väätänen explained.

Stefan Meister, Senior Policy Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, also argued that the economical effect of the Russian food ban on Europe was minimal.

“As we all know, Russia is not really a crucial market: it depends on the area. Maybe for Baltic states, for Poland, this really is a key market, but for many other member-states it’s just one of the markets,” the expert said.

However, he admitted that in certain cases, such as for the German milk and chicken producers, the food ban became a major concern for the next few years.

Stefan Meister also suggested that the affected agricultural businesses will be able to move to other world markets in the future, which, according to him, is facilitated by a trend to become more economically independent from Russia, which is gaining popularity among the European businessmen.

At the same time, the expert noted that Moscow’s actions proved that the Kremlin was not as defenseless against the sanctions as the West thought.

“The effect, I think, was limited, but this is what Putin wanted — to show that he can also respond with sanctions, and a kind of surprise effect. One main point is the decision-makers will see that Russia is really willing to go on tougher countries,” he clarified.

In this context, Stefan Meister expressed his hope that Moscow and Brussels are still willing to avoid the further escalation and find the way out.

“If more sanctions get introduced, it will be even more difficult to solve this conflict, to talk to each other, to find compromises, to identify common interests. And I think the key problem is that the key area of common interest, which is energy and economy, will become key area of conflict between both sides, so that means there’s not much left to cooperate on, which, I think, would be a disaster for Europe and a disaster for Russia,” the analyst warned.

According to him, both Russian and German authorities gradually understand the scale of damage the sanctions deal to their own economies.

Because of that, the expert suggested that Moscow and Brussels sooner or later will have to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict, even though neither side wants to make the first step towards a compromise.

“Sanctions are only a mean to show strength, to show power, but it’s not something to solve the conflict with. At one point, we will have to sit down, and then we will talk about interests and solutions. From the European side, the German side is still willing to step back with sanctions,” Stefan Meister said.

At the same time, Arne Melchior, Senior Policy Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, questioned the unusual subject of the Russian counter-sanctions.

“Why was food trade chosen for these sanctions? In a security conflict, you would have boycott for arms trade or ammunition or something else. So why was food chosen? Perhaps there are also industrial interests in Russia,” he suggested.

According to the researcher, Kremlin’s actions hit many countries, including Norway, that was the largest food exporter to Russia in 2013.

“For Norway, Russia had developed into the largest export market for seafood, so sanctions mean interruptions of the trade and, of course, reduction in demand, and the exporters have to find new markets for the fish. On the other hand, there is large international demand for salmon, so, perhaps, they are able to find alternative markets,” the analyst continued.

He added that the food ban hit the Russian consumers as well, and caused a spike in demand for alternative food suppliers based in other countries.

Speculating about the future development of the situation, Arne Melchior expressed his home that the economy relationships between Moscow and Brussels would normalize in the future and the conflict would not escalate any further.

“Time has to show: if the sanctions are temporary, perhaps we can back to normal trading relations. Norway had very good relationship with Russia, it’s been developing over time, and we hope that the relationship will be normalized over time,” the expert said.

Meanwhile, Arnaud Dubien, director of Observatoire Franco-Russe research center, noted that Kremlin’s actions made some of the Europeans rethink their vision on introducing new sanctions against Russia, as well as keeping the current ones.

Full text news agency "PenzaNews":
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