25th July 2014 IMF Global Economic Outlook Review

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25th July 2014 IMF Global Economic Outlook Review

Earlier this week the IMF released its latest Global Economic Outlook which saw them drop their previous estimate of 3.7% down to 3.4%.

The reduction is largely based on the poorer than expected performance of both the US and China at the beginning of the year. Both economies underperformed in the first quarter of 2014 for very different reasons. The US saw possibly the worst winter weather in a few decades and the disruption caused major issues for the economy as production, manufacturing and the majority of government projects were halted as the country dealt with unusually large amounts of snowfall. The Chinese New Year hampered the Chinese economies start to the year as 100's of thousands of people returned to their provinces for the celebrations, meaning that productivity was substantially lower than normal months. The US has seen its economic growth projected to slip from 2% to just 1.7% however China has managed to get back on track and now should reach the 7.5% originally forecast.

In Europe the UK and Spain were seen as being 2 economies worth mentioning. The UK is expected to expand by 3.2%, up from 2.8% previously forecast, largely due to an increase in manufacturing and help from the finance industry. The UK is seen as outperforming its other EU members in 2014. Spain, which has just seen its unemployment finally drop below 25% is seen as expanding by up to 1.2% in 2015 and a further 1.6% in 2015. The Spanish economy has been under stress this past year and this could be a sign that its economy, and it's property market may finally start turning a corner.

Other economies of note were the Russia and India. Russia, with its current political issues with the Ukraine has had a tentative second quarter and will be a country to watch for the remainder of the year. Initially expansion was set to be in the region of 1.3% yet since March the economy has seen vast amounts of capital leave the country and even before the news of the Malaysian flight had been downed, it was forecast that the economy would only expand by 0.2%. India with its huge population and new, more fiscally minded leader is seen to expand at 5.4% this year. The country has already started to change policy, allowing more foreign investment and further competition and this should see the economy move forward in 2014 and into 2015.

Major Indexes as of 25th July:

Index          % Change          Close/Current

DOW Jones         (-0.02%)          17,083.80

NASDAQ          (-0.04%)          4,472.11

FTSE 100          (+0.34%)          6,821.46

CAC 40          (+0.78%)          4,410.65

DAX          (+0.42%)          9,794.06

Nikkei 225          (+1.13%)          15,457.87

Hang Seng          (-0.02%)          24,135.59

SSE          (+0.50%)          2,115.62

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