Iraq conflict requires diplomatic steps, new counter-terrorism strategy
According to the message published on the Internet, the terrorist group changed its title to the Islamic State (IS), while its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was officially added to the USA terrorist watchlist in October 2011, was appointed “caliph” and “the leader of all Muslims.”
The announcement was made amid the ongoing military conflict in Iraq between the government forces and the extremists, which are supported by Sunni rebels who oppose the current administrative policies, as well as by former military from the Saddam Hussein army and lesser terrorist groups.
At the same time, Masoud Barzani, President of autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, dissatisfied by the policies taken by the government and Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, announced the plans to hold a referendum on independence.
According to the foreign analysts, the current state of affairs puts Iraq on the brink of a breakup into several independent states, which not only would fail to calm the Middle East disturbances, but might make the region even more unstable and cause new conflicts.
The foreign journalists described the idea of the “caliphate”
“The Islamic caliphate can't be restored by force. Occupying a country and killing half of its population... this is not an Islamic state, this is terrorism,” said Sheikh Abbas Shuman, senior representative of the Al-Azhar University.
Nadje Al-Ali, professor and member of the London Middle East Institute at the SOAS University, stressed that the reasons behind the conflict are the US intrusion in 2003-2011, deprival of Sunni minority of their rights during the American military operation, and the worldwide increase of religious terrorism.
“Another reason is, of course, the conflict in Syria and increase of Islamic extremism in terms of resistance to the Assad regime,” the expert said in an interview to “PenzaNews”
At the same time, she noted that the fighting sides do not respect the interests of many Iraqi citizens, such as mixed Sunni-Shia families.
“Many Iraqi people do not associate themselves with any of the groups,” Nadje Al-Ali added.
The expert called for the expeditious settlement of the conflict, and pointed out that military intervention by the worldwide community will worsen the situation for years to come.
“I think it is very important to find a political solution,” she stressed.
However, Günter Meyer, professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz and President of the European Association of Middle Eastern Studies, found the diplomatic resolution of the Iraqi conflict improbable.
“There is no chance for a political solution of the conflict because the Islamic State is not prepared to accept any political compromise,”
In addition, the expert noted that military clashes with terrorists would lead to a long and bloody campaign, mainly due to the status of the terrorist group and its numerous supporters.
“Due to the very clever use of the internet and social networks the Islamic State has become the most attractive Jihadi organization on a global level,” the researcher explained.
However, as Günter Meyer emphasized, the group owes its military successes to the support of the former officers of the Saddam Hussein army and the members of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath party that was banned in Iraq.
“In spite of different ideological aims, ISIS and the Sunni resistance joined forces against the polarizing Shiite government,”
However, he pointed out that the Kurdish Peshmerga and the Shia militia joined the fight against the terrorists after the declaration of the “Islamic Caliphate.” In addition to that, Iran, Syria, Russia and the USA offered military and technical aid to the Iraq government. According to Günter Meyer, these steps make it possible to argue that the terrorists will eventually be defeated, but not without severe consequences for the region.
“The forces of the Islamic State will be defeated in the long run because they are isolated in the Middle East. However, they are supported by Jihadi groups in the region, which could lead to the further destabilization of Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,” the expert explained.
At the same time, Noah Bonsey, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that internal frictions might facilitate the fall of the terrorists.
“You are now starting to see the emergence of more tension between ISIS and non-Jihadi Sunni rebels who joined in the fight. I do think we will see those tensions rise. ISIS’ announcement of a caliphate recently is likely to only increase this tension because it highlights the fact that ISIS ultimately seeks to assume unilateral control of Sunni areas,” he said.
“These segments of the rebellion will be key if there comes a point when they turn against ISIS – either because of a resolution in Baghdad that provides Sunni leaders with a real stake in governance, or because of ISIS’ aggression against them, or some combination of the two. This can be key in slowing and eventually reversing ISIS gains,” the expert continued.
At the same time, Noah Bonsey stressed that there is no strictly military solution to the conflict, because ISIS managed to establish effective funding and resources streams – for Syrian oil and seized weapons in particular.
From the expert’s point of view, the Iraqi government should stop follow the tactics of religious polarization and let the Sunni participate in governing the country in order to change the current state of affairs.
“There has to be a resolution that empowers credible Sunni leadership to play a meaningful role within the Iraqi government itself,” Noah Bonsey explained.
In his turn, Kamal Sido, head of Middle East Department of the Society for Threatened Peoples (STP), suggested that it is important to pay attention to the role of the Kurdish community in terms of finding the solution.
“The Kurds in Syria have been fighting against this terrorist group for 2-3 years almost all by themselves. Nobody helps them in their fight against this evil, not even Russia,” he stressed.
According to the human rights activist, Christians, Assyrians, Chaldeans and other confessions are opposed to ISIS as well.
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