Kyrgyz Macroeconomic Indicators continue improvement

WOODBRIDGE, Va. - March 7, 2014 - PRLog -- News Release

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For Release, March 7, 2014

     The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Continued Improvement

Woodbridge, VA - Data from the country’s Ministry of Economics and from its National Bank (central bank) are useful in constructing a picture of macroeconomic conditions in Kyrgyzstan that would affect foreign investors.

The four variables used to calculate the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index©) are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at their latest readings, which for March 2014 come from January 2014.  The current reading of the Index is 111.7, up from 106.3 in December (October 2013 = 100).

The January 2014 GDP growth rate showed an annual rate of 9.1%, according to the Ministry of Economics.  Major contributions to growth come from a construction boom and strong industrial production, with agriculture and service sectors also growing but not contributing as much to the impressive GDP growth.

Deposits at commercial banks in the country continued to grow steadily, as they have over the preceding 12 months to January 2014, with deposits in the national currency, the som, up 29.76% and those in foreign currency up 35.24% from their levels on January 2013, for an increase in aggregate deposits of 32.40% over the level a year ago.  Deposits in January 2014 were 4.38% higher than the level reported in December 2013.   A smaller percentage of time deposits in the banking system had maturities of three years or greater than in previous months but overall, time deposits as a share of total deposits increased over the year.  This trend reflects continued confidence in the commercial banking system.

International reserves of $2.212 billion at the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic in January 2014 were 6.87% higher than in the previous January but 1.17% lower than in December 2013, following a previously observed seasonal pattern of reduced reserves in the winter months.  The amount in January 2014 was still higher than for all monthly reported amounts in 2013 except for the December 2013 amount.  The central bank’s reserves amount to about 40% of the country’s level of imports in 2012 and are nearly 4 times that year’s estimated current account deficit.

For the month of January 2014, the exchange rate of the som was slightly lower against the dollar, trading at an average of 49.873 soms to the US dollar (1 som = 2.005 US cents) for the month, compared to 49.246 soms (1 som = 2.031 US cents) for December, with a standard deviation in January of soms per dollar of 0.6446 som.  Expectation of the devaluation of the tenge in neighboring Kazakhstan, which did occur in February, and the recent changes in currency markets around the world in response to anticipated actions of the US Federal Reserve affected the som’s exchange rate and its volatility.  This reduction in value is not much of a cause for concern, given that it is not unique to Kyrgyzstan and the Kyrgyz central bank still has a strong reserve position.

Overall, the CAP KMI Index suggests a positive outlook for business conditions in Kyrgyzstan.

About the Central Asia Prospect

The Central Asia Prospect is website where Dr. Gary Roseman writes about the development of Central Asia and promotes the area’s business and investment opportunities. The focus is on countries in the traditionally-defined Central Asian region - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. For additional information visit http://www.centralasiaprospect.com/

About Dr. Gary Roseman

Dr. Roseman worked with investment projects in Uzbekistan and worked on research projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. He taught economics in Russia (Irkutsk and Vladivostok) and Ukraine (Donetsk) and also had a Fulbright grant in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, where he researched the developing mortgage market. He has experience teaching in the US and has a PhD and a CPA. Currently, he lives in Virginia and works in Washington, DC.