CFTR Modulators Instigate Cystic Fibrosis Market Surge
Cystic Fibrosis Therapeutics in Major Developed Markets to 2019 - CFTR Modulators Initiate Drive towards Personalized Treatment and Market Growth
Although very expensive, CFTR modulators are the first to act directly on the defective CFTR protein, which is the root cause of CF. As a result they represent the closest therapy to a cure currently available for CF patients. One CFTR modulator, Kalydeco (ivacaftor), is currently on the market, although it can only treat 5% of people with a specific mutation (O’Reilly and Elphick, 2013). Despite the low treatment population, it has already become one of the top-grossing drugs since its launch in 2012. A second CFTR modulator, lumacaftor, is expected to be launched in 2015. This drug is used in combination with Kalydeco and it is expected to be usable in over 80% of the CF population, which, combined with its large cost and uptake is expected to be the primary driver in the CF market surge.
Increasing Life Expectancy Causes Rise in Prevalence
The prevalence of CF will rise slowly over the forecast period by an estimated 10,000 cases. The primary cause of this is the increasing life expectancy of CF patients, which has rapidly grown over the past three decades as the understanding of the causes of CF has developed (Davies et al., 2007).
CF incidence remains relatively constant as it is a hereditary disease; however the mortality rate is decreasing due to improvements in treatments and disease management. Therefore, the overall mortality rate is lower than the birth rate of CF patients and so the CF population is increasing. This will eventually reach equilibrium.
The increasing prevalence is also a factor in terms of driving market growth, as many CF therapeutics must be taken indefinitely and on a regular basis.
Key Drug Expiries Instigate Competition
Several key drug expirations will occur in the forecast period. The drugs set to lose their patent protection are the mucolytic Pulmozyme (dornase alfa) and the antibiotics TOBI (tobramycin)
The antibiotics segment of the market is predicted to become overcrowded in the forecast period, following the launch of several products with similar safety and efficacy profiles and the introduction of generic TOBI and TOBI Podhaler. Rather than one product dominating the antibiotics segment as is currently the case with TOBI, it is likely that each new product will acquire a smaller but more equal market share. To order this report please visit http://www.reportstack.com/