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GlobalData Forecasts a Decade of Global Unconventional Oil Production Growth
The firm’s study states that global production of unconventional oil, which includes oil sands and extraheavy oil, will more than double to over 5,753 mbd by the end of the current decade from approximately 2,710 mbd in 2011. In 2011, unconventional oil production accounted for 3.2% of the global total oil production of 83,562 mbd.
“Over the next decade, crude oil contributions from unconventional reservoirs will grow, owing to the large resource potential, relatively low cost of entry, and established development momentum,” says Mr. Jurecky. “Emerging hydrocarbon basins in harsh environments such as the Arctic, or those with little infrastructure such as East Africa, have massive resource potential, but large upfront costs and long lead times make them long-term plays rather than short-term opportunities,”
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Booming North American unconventional development is expected to play a major role in global production gains. From 551 mbd output in 2011, unconventional oil production is expected to hit over 1,800 mbd by the end of the decade. “North America has the ideal environment for unconventional drilling: resource-rich rock, large contiguous and unpopulated acreage, private land ownership, an established industry, and a friendly regulatory environment,”
According to GlobalData, Canadian oil sands will continue to contribute the most to the global production of unconventional oil. It is estimated that Canada will produce 3,173 mbd from oil sands in 2020, from approximately 1,595 mbd in 2011. Contributing projects include Syncrude adding a Stage 3 debottleneck by 2016 and completing a Stage 4 expansion by 2018. Of the country’s planned oil sands projects, Suncor’s Fort Hills project, with a planned capacity of 160 mbd by 2016, is among the largest. “Canada’s industry is fueled by demand from the United States, and its government continues to look for further demand centers for its crude,” says Jurecky.
This report provides an overview of the unconventional oil market, by key resource types including Canada’s oil sands, North American oil shales and Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude oil. It also analyses some of the major drivers and challenges for the unconventional oil industry.
This report was built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GlobalData’s team of industry experts.
GlobalData is a leading global business intelligence provider offering advanced analytics to help clients make better, more informed decisions every day. Our research and analysis is based on the expert knowledge of over 700 qualified business analysts and 25,000 interviews conducted with industry insiders every year, enabling us to offer the most relevant, reliable and actionable strategic business intelligence available for a wide range of industries.
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