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Indian Natural Gas Industry Scenario
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Natural gas contributes about 9 per cent to India’s total energy basket, as against the world average of 24 per cent. Major consumers of natural gas include power and fertilizer sectors, contributing about 65 per cent to the total gas consumption. Other consumers from petrochemicals, sponge-iron and city gas distribution (CGD) have also contributed substantially to the overall gas demand. http://www.bharatbook.com/
In India natural gas demand has always surpassed the available supply resulting in perennial gas deficit situation. This deficit was attributed to various factors including absence of gas infrastructure and lack of adequate supply. Large chunk of gas-based capacities, which came anticipating adequate gas supply at appropriate prices are either lying idle or operating at much below their capacities or operating at other alternative fuels such as naphtha, fuel oil and diesel.
CARE Research has taken a realistic outlook on existing gas-based capacity, expected capacity addition and switches from liquid-fired capacities; to forecast natural gas (http://www.bharatbook.com) demand till 2011-12. Further, a possible gas allocation mix in 2011-12 from domestic fields has also been formulated, based on the current policy guidelines and our outlook on ascribed value of gas against alternate fuels. Our pricing outlook involves a detailed analysis of competitiveness of natural gas with other alternative fuels for key sectors. Our outlook for CGD covers detailed discussion on implication of relevant regulations and analysis of pay-back period in case CGD consumers opt to switch to natural gas.
CARE Research expects gas deficit to continue through 2011-12, as the large existing unmet demand in power and fertilizer sector coupled with the switch capacities would outpace incremental gas supply. India’s natural gas supply mix is expected to be dominated by new domestic fields and LNG imports, whereas power and fertilizer shall continue to be one of the biggest consumers of gas. On the pricing front, we expect gas prices to be market determined going forward, and imported R-LNG to loose competitiveness to domestic gas supplies. We expect that although CGD offers huge demand potential, regulatory policies are less conducive.
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