SGM Metals: Welch "Chicago Guys Will Do Anything, Can't Debate So Change the Numbers"

The jobs data magically improving weeks before the election seems to be a little too convenient & now people are being forced to re-evaluate the 'recovery'. The more you look, the more obvious this farce becomes, get ready for the new normal at home.
With this image in the background, the magical 7.8% seems to be slightly ironic?
With this image in the background, the magical 7.8% seems to be slightly ironic?
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7.8% Jobs Incumbent
Presidential Election


Palm Beach Gardens - Florida - US

Oct. 15, 2012 - PRLog -- reports: [ We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.

So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.

Twitter post by the great Jack Welch regarding the mysterious jobs number improvement: Jack Welch@jack_welch

“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers” POSTED OCT 5,2012]

Somebody had the backbone to call it for what it is, an extremely convenient & mysteriously magical jobs reversal after a steady 4 year trend that couldn’t be broken no matter what they threw at it. Mostly conveniently is the fact that it came at the absolutely perfect moment (the last jobs report w/ time to be digested before voters go into the booth to cast their vote) right on the heels of the abysmal debate performance we saw last week & in time to be a good election talking point. The irony here is that I knew this was the card they would play at this exact moment and I even called it out back in February, so there was no excitement here when they dropped this bombshell in the headlines. You see, modern day politics is about statistics & the science of the predictability of human behavior, sadly its no longer about connecting with the voters & being a real person. Knowing that everything done in the modern political sparring that is being presented to us as organic & wholesome is contrived and fueled by statistics, if you know the statistics they are paying attention to you can with some startling accuracy predict what they will do next. Worth mentioning is the fact that the jump in jobs was for part time workers so does that really show improvement in the labor market?

Enter the magical employment report which is the best jobs report in almost three decades some are reporting. The writing was on the wall that this was the card to be played next as statistics clearly illustrate that throughout ALL of American history there has NEVER been an incumbent president that successfully secured a re-election with unemployment at or above 8%. NEVER BEFORE IN US HISTORY! So if you were aware of this little US fun fact than you knew it was coming and didn’t get suckered into the herd’s excitement, but instead you were able to stay back far enough to see the greater picture at large.

Now that we have established that this magical employment report is suspect, lets look at the bigger picture for a moment. Record unemployment, record food stamp dependency, record reduction in the net worths of Americans, record social security disability enrollment, record bankruptcies, record bankrupt local & state govt.s, record federal deficits, record debt monetization, record low bank lending, record high levels of crime waves across the nation, record levels of emotional depression around the world, record levels of violent protest & riots thanks to the depression globally, do I need to continue? How exactly is there a recovery in all of those not so good record breaking statistics? Just because you magically change some numbers around doesn’t fix the core issue and therefor the crisis will continue.

We are in for a really rude awakening soon enough. The longer we deny the true nature of this new normal the more impactful it will be when it is finally realized. Maybe its time to start thinking about the “what ifs”? What if gas stations ran out of gas where I live? What if I couldn’t fill up my car to get to work? Would I lose my job? Can I afford to lose my job? If there is no gas for long enough will it affect the grocery stores ability to keep the shelves stocked? Should I begin to prepare for these types of supply side interruptions? Remember that we just covered the consequences of the “zero supply side economics” model that has overtaken our global economies days ago. We are in a very fragile economic recession that can easily spin out of control once the election has passed & Im afraid we have been spoiled with excess retail availability for far too long. Just the imagery of the options on grocery shelves being reigned in from 47 choices for shampoos down to 5 major brands may serve as a wakeup call but how much damage will be done by that point? Establish your “Weak Dollar Insurance Policy” in physical gold & silver bullion today & begin to participate in the sound money debate before the debate is had without you. Recessions can turn into depressions, currency wars can degrade into trade wars & trade wars can morph into real wars if you aren’t careful. Remember that is a far better strategy to PREPARE your portfolio than to attempt to REPAIR it once the damage has begun. Tick, tock.
Source:SGM Metals & The Elemental Economist
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Tags:7.8% Jobs Incumbent, Presidential Election
Industry:Banking, Business
Location:Palm Beach Gardens - Florida - United States
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