Romney To Win Per University Analysis

Aug. 27, 2012 - PRLog -- Romney To Win According to Analysis

An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections for 32 years - is forecasting Mitt Romney as the winner this year.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will be short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected. The prediction has Obama winning only 218 votes in the electoral college.

While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote and 47.1 for Obama when comparing the two major political parties.

The economy is our #1 driver in elections. If the economy was stable, Obama would likely win – but with people across the country suffering these hard times, Romney is definitely a strong candidate and very possibly our next president.

Obama needs the swing states, including Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Without winning the majority of these states, he won’t make it.

This CU model has accurately predicted the winner for the last 30+ years (eight presidential elections).  This study is among about a dozen election prediction models.

The professors at the Colorado University provide some caveats that could affect their forecast, including the time frame the economic data used in the study was collected and close tallies in some states. The information was accumulated 3 months ago and another analysis will be provided going forward.

The experts say that considerations must be given to unique factors in one or more states could sway the election. Currently they are neck and neck and as of today it is still anyone’s guess.

There are some schools of thought that places Obama as clear front runner as a result of Romney’s political stands that could set us back scientifically and his strong religious beliefs along with how he pushes them – might actually put him in the back seat.

It seems that during every presidential election year we hear that jobs and the economy will be pivotal issues. It's commonly assumed that an incumbent president has little to worry about if the economy is good and there are lots of jobs. Of course today’s economy is quite a different picture.

Weak economic growth and stubbornly high unemployment will be key issues in the 2012 presidential campaign. The number of unemployed Americans doubled during the Great Recession -- from 7.26 million to 14.77 million. The jobless rate remained stuck around 9% for much of President Obama's term, although it fell to 8.6% in November 2011 and has remained below 9% in the months since.

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