Market Commentary - Week of July 30th, 2012 (by Atlas Wealth Management)

July 30, 2012 - PRLog -- The last two weeks had a lot of volatile action, even for the summer months (last August not included).  With Europe pushing us around with headlines and a GDP number coming in at an expected 1.5% growth in the economy, most people feel we are still trading in a range waiting for a catalyst.  The GDP number is showing very slow growth in the economy and there isn't much on the immediate horizon to propel that number to the 3%-4% most investors and economists were looking for at this point since the financial crisis in 2008.  There is still a lot of unwinding going on with housing, financials institutions, political bickering and finger pointing.  Only policy changes, confidence and corporate incentives will work to increase hiring, eased banking lending policy and the housing markets sustain their uptrend in Existing Home Sales and New Home Construction.

Some Corporate Earnings to keep your eye on for moving our markets; (this week) PFE, PG, DUK, CMC, SA, KFT, AIG, MA, EPD, TWX, APC, APA, EXC, DTV, MET, D, GM, AMT, ADP, SCCO, TWC, TYC - (next week) DIS, CVS, NWSA, ESRX, EMR, PCLN, CTL, PCG, CTSH, BXP, VNO, M, DISH, RL, HCN, CF, CHK

This week we have moderate economic news until Friday, the "Unemployment Report".  This is a critical report for several reasons, first its a political football and the details of this number will be discussed in the media until ad nauseam.  Second, it will be a tremendous talking point at the upcoming Presidential Conventions on both sides based upon the number and the details contained within it.  This commentary is NOT political and will not take a side, but the "Core Four" economic numbers (GDP, Unemployment Number, ISM Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing and Case-Shiller Home Price Index)* will be used a lot in the Political rhetoric over the next three(3) months.  Keep an eye on how those numbers are trending over the next month.

Market Direction: Two weeks ago we mentioned a target range on the S&P 500 Index Levels of 1,380 - 1,400 by end of July.  We stand by that range and are looking for upward momentum going into the Political Convention speeches.  A top range on the S&P 500 of 1,420 - 1,440 by the Presidential Elections is expected if the Europeans can begin to agree on bailout amounts and policies for payback.  We are not dealing with many of the same issues that we were 12 months ago (downgrade of the US credit, Quantitative Easing Part 2 ending and an Overbought situation in the markets).  The "Fiscal Cliff" issue is important, but we are not in the eleventh hour yet.  Even with the European Debt crisis looming overhead, the "Political speak" of building (i.e. rebuilding) of a great America will kick in very quickly as the conventions approach.  This will provide a B-12 shot to the American public psyche and we should see our markets run a bit.  Look for some volatility in August, but overall we should be 2%-4% higher than where we finish in July.  If the Fed (Bernanke) announces more Quantitative Easing (i.e. more Bond Buying), then DOUBLE the percentage range to 4%-8%.  Good or bad, this is what Investors and Financial Institutions want to hear.

*the Core Four Economic Indicators are the opinion of Ronald Lang as the Top Four economic indicators used to determine economic growth and market conviction.

Authored by Ronald Lang, Principal
Atlas Wealth Management, LLC
- a IBD (Investor's Business Daily) Contributor - http://www.Investors.com

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