Free Horse Racing Tips From Carlisle

June 27, 2012 - PRLog -- Carlisle Horse Racing Tips  


3.00 – Carlisle – Mark Johnston’s unexposed Icelander is interesting back down in trip after running no sort of race last time over 1m2f, but last week’s King Edward VII Stakes winner Thomas Chippendale was fifth in that contest and, therefore, it might turn out to be a hotter than average affair. However, four of the last five winners have shouldered 9-3 or more and with that in mind MOHEEBB, who has two course and distance wins plus a third in this race 12 months ago, is the each-way call. Add in that the Ruth Carr yard are in great form and he’s also down a pound for his recent Hamilton run, then at a course he clearly thrives at he can go close.

Key Trends

5/5 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/5 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/5 – Had 3 or more previous runs on the turf that season
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Previous winners over a mile
3/5 – Had run at Carlisle before
The average winning SP is 7/1




3.30 – Carlisle – Onto the 'Carlisle Bell' and last year’s winner, Miami Gator, will be hoping to follow-up, and despite a 6lb rise for a recent Hamilton win connections stick with 7lb claimer Conor Harrison - meaning he’s actually 2lbs lower than 12months ago. Richard Whitaker’s Sam Nombulist will be popular too after winning at York last time, but the yard are just 1-from-32 with their older horses at the track, while a 7lb hike in the weights also makes things harder. Barwick and Amaze come from yards that do well here and are respected, but FAZZA could be the answer in this tricky affair. He hails from the Edwin Tuer stable, who are 4-from-8 with their 4+year-olds at the track, while the return to a mile and softer ground can see him put his last run at Chester behind him – oh, and did I mention he’s also a previous course and distance winner?

Key Trends

9/10 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
8/10 – Had at least 3 previous runs that season
8/10 – Had won over at least a mile before
5/10 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Had run at Carlisle before
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
The average winning SP IS 12/1




4.05 – Carlisle – Next up is the tasty-sounding 'Cumberland Plate' and with just one favourite (joint) landing the spoils in the last 10 years then don’t be afraid to look down the betting here. That said, despite not many market leaders going in 8 of the last 10 have returned 12/1 or shorter, so if you like your stats you might be interested in that. Union Island, who ran down the field in last year’s Carlisle Bell, could go well and comes from the Brian Ellison yard who took this in 2009, but the way HAWKESHEAD won last time at Catterick was really eye-catching. This lightly-raced 5 year-old has only been raised 5lbs for that victory, while in recent years the Ian Williams team are 2-from-6 with their older horses at the track. Entihaa and Mica Mika are the others that warrant respect in what looks a tricky race to unravel.



Key Trends

8/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10  - Had won over at least 1m4f before
7/10 – Placed last time out
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/10 – Won their last race
4/10 – Had exactly 4 previous runs on the flat turf that season
1/10 – Winning favourites (joint)


4.35 – Carlisle – Trainer Tim Easterby has held the key to this race in recent years, winning the prize in 2008 and 2009, and he looks to have every chance of adding to that record with NO POPPY, who was also runner-up in this race 12 months ago. Having already won twice on soft ground then all is good in that respect, while with victories over 6 and 7f too then the drop back in trip (raced over a mile last time) is also in her favour. Add in that young Adam Carter, who has already won on her, takes off a handy 5lbs from the saddle then everything points to a big run.

Key Trends

5/5 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
4/5 – Carried 9-1 or more
3/5 – Aged 4 years-old
2/5 – Won by Tim Easterby
0/5 – Winning favourites




5.05 – Carlisle – With the ground likely to be on the testing side then having stamina on your side, especially at this testing track, will be a huge asset in the closing stages. With that in mind, and the fact they are both in cracking form, then this race looks to revolve around Pitkin and BEST TRIP - both are proven winners over further. The pair come into the race off the back of recent wins and carry 6lbs penalties, but, for me, Brian Ellison’s charge looks to be slightly better handicapped and with forcing tactics he can add to the yard’s 21% strike-rate they have at the track with their older horses. The final thing to note is that this race has thrown up a few shocks in recent years and with all of the last 5 winners coming into the race off the back of unplaced runs then it could pay to also have a saver on one of the bigger-priced runners. Berberana, from the in-form Jeremy Gask yard, will appreciate the soft ground and might be worth a small interest.

Key Trends

5/5 – Unplaced last time out
4/5 – Ran at either York or Musselburgh last time out
4/5 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
2/5 – Aged 5 years-old
1/5 – Winning favourites

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