Electoral College Quirk May Be Danger Sign For Obama's Reelection, Podcast Says

Only one President has ever been reelected with less electoral votes than their first election, out of 15 who tried. This pattern may be a danger sign for President Obama, or could just be a soon-to-be-forgotten historical quirk.
By: My History Can Beat Up Your Politics Podcast
June 2, 2012 - PRLog -- PHILADELPHIA, PA - June 2nd.  - Only one President was ever reelected with less electoral votes than in their first election, out of 15 in American history who served a full first term, according to the "My History Can Beat Up Your Politics Podcast."  This may prove a danger sign for President Obama's campaign as most polls currently show him unlikely to win with the 365 electoral votes he earned in 2008.  

"It's not impossible that he can win the election while losing EVs, but it's challenging."  said Bruce Carlson, host of the program.  "And it would be historic."

Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Jackson, Lincoln, Grant, McKinley, Franklin Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush all received more EVs in their election than in their first one.  The amount varies, with greater gains in earlier history (when new states were being added.)  But even 20th century forward, Presidents gain an average of 9% in electoral votes from their original election, according to the podcast.  ( The podcast did not count VPs who took over and thus did not have a first election as President, nor did it count FDR's third and fourth elections, as they were unrepeated in history.  )  For President Obama, the states of Indiana and North Carolina may be more difficult to win than in the past; polls also show Virginia and Colorado close.  

"This is not just an omen of some kind, it means that most Presidents naturally broaden their support and win new states in their reelection," Carlson said. "And its logical to think if they aren't reaching into more states,  that something is off."

Yet no one in Romney 2012 should pop the corks yet, according to the podcast. As there is one exception: 1916.  Woodrow WIlson, under the banner of 'He Kept Us Out of War," won an anemic victory with 277 electoral votes with a narrow victory in California.  This was far lower than his 435 electoral votes in 1912.  Of course that original election also featured a three-way split, which split his opponents and helped boost Wilson's total four years earlier, something President Obama did not benefit from in 2008.   Like President Wilson though, President Obama won a big victory in his first election, meaning that Mitt Romney would have to take as many as six states including Ohio and Florida to win.  

"1916 should actually warm the hearts of Plouffe and Axelrod, and the President's supporters" said Carlson.  "But it was a daily migraine for Wilson's aides.  They didn't know whether there man would be in the White House again until a day or so after the election; all this during the German UBoat crisis."

"My History Can Beat Up Your Politics" is a podcast that applies history to understand today's politics better.  The podcast is available on iTunes or can be found at http://www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpolitics.com.
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Source:My History Can Beat Up Your Politics Podcast
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Tags:Obama, Romney, Election, Wilson, 1916, History, Electoral Vote
Industry:Politics
Location:United States
Subject:Reports
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