Richard Dunwoody's Free Cheltenham Festival Tips 2012

Feb. 28, 2012 - PRLog -- Who is your Gold Cup fancy, and of the outsiders who can go well?

There will be no better sight for racing to see Kauto Star land his third Gold Cup, but I’m still in the Long Run camp. Yes, many were not that impressed with his recent Newbury win, but he was giving Burton Port 10lbs and because that horse was returning from a long absence then I know the Seven Barrows team would have not left anything to chance with him and had him spot on that day. I agree, that Long Run still needs to brush up on his jumping, but he’s the reigning champion and is certainly still the one to beat.

Of those at a bigger price, recent Argento Chase winner, Midnight Chase, always saves his best for the Cheltenham track and is respected, but Weird Al could be the forgotten horse in the race. Okay, so he was pulled up in the race 12 months ago, but he won this year’s Charlie Hall in decent fashion and was only 2 lengths behind Long Run in the Betfair Chase back in November – he’s also won twice over fences at Prestbury Park.  


Would you run Grands Crus in the Gold Cup or RSA Chase?

It’s a tricky one as this year’s Gold Cup could be there for the taking with many people having doubts over Long Run and Kauto Star, while the RSA has traditionally been a very rough race – don’t forget Long Run couldn’t win it back in 2010! Yes, his Feltham win over Christmas was run in a faster time than Kauto Star’s King George victory, but, for me, experience is vital to win a Gold Cup. Did you know that since 1963 only 1 Gold Cup winner had raced less than six times over fences – and with Grands Crus only having had three chase runs then this is a big negative in my eyes.

Therefore, with that in mind it has to be the RSA Chase at this stage of his career and being only 7 years-old he’s got plenty of time to come back and serve it up to Long Run at future festivals.

 
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle looks wide-open – who catches your eye?

I highlighted Darlan as a horse to follow at the start of the season and so far he’s not let us down. Yes, he took a tumble last time in the Betfair Hurdle and we have to see how he comes out of that. However, he was going so well at the time and looked sure to play a part in the race that Zarkandar won and considering that horse is second favourite for the Champion Hurdle then I’d still be with Darlan for the Supreme.


With Riverside Theatre recently entering the Ryanair Chase picture do you think he’ll win – if not who will?

I was impressed with his recent Ascot win, but this year’s Ryanair looks a hot contest. The big thing against his chance, for me, is the track – All seven winners of this race so far had previously won a race at Cheltenham, while even 5 of the last 7 runners-up had tasted success at Prestbury Park! Riverside Theatre was fifth in the Arkle last season, but he didn’t well jump that day, while all his best efforts to date have been on the flatter tracks.

Noble Prince, who landed the Jewson Chase at the festival last season, is one for the shortlist, as is Rubi Light, who often burns his rivals off in the middle part of his races – but the Irish are 0 from 19 runners in this race. For me, how can we forget the winner of this race for the last two seasons – Albertas Run?

His record over fences at Cheltenham that reads an impressive 1-1-9-1-1, while providing the ground isn’t too soft come the Thursday then will have his ideal conditions once again – Oh, and a certain AP McCoy will be in the saddle once again!


Many punters will be putting last year’s big winners - Long Run, Sizing Europe, Hurricane Fly and Big Buck’s in accumulators – can they all win again?

Well, it’s about 18/1 that all four win and I’m sure at those odds then this bet will attract plenty of takers. You don’t get many years when all the so-called bankers go in, but if you add Quevega to the list then that will push the odds to around 28/1!

The bookmakers will certainly be running for cover with Long Run on the Friday should all the others go in, but with last year’s Gold Cup winner possibly being the one weak link in many eyes then should the accumulator hunters still be running at that stage it will at least give them a chance to lay their bet back.


The Arkle looks Sprinter Sacres to lose – do you agree?


Yes, I pointed followers in his direction at the beginning of the season when he was around 8/1 for the Arkle and although he’s no price now I suspect plenty would have got on at better odds earlier in the season and will be hoping he lives up to his ever-increasing reputation.

I’ve been really impressed with his jumping and the way he took the Game Spirit at Newbury last time was very eye-catching. Some will point to the fact he’s yet to tackle the Cheltenham fences, but I can’t see an issue on that front. Others will say that Al Ferof beat him in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 12 months and that this race has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years – since 2000 only Azertyuiop in 2003 landed the spoils as market leader – but this horse looks the real deal to me and I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more of him over the years.


The Cheltenham trainers’ title race looks a straight fight between Nicholls, Mullins and Henderson – who do you think will come out on top?


Paul Nicholls has had a cough scare at his yard, and with two weeks to go Nicky Henderson didn’t have a Saturday winner last week. However, I certainly wouldn’t have these minor blips put you off backing any of their horses and believe me they will be firing in the winners over the four days.

That said, Willie Mullins took the trainers’ title 12 months ago and with Hurricane Fly and Quevega, who both run on the opening day, he can get two early points on the board. Add in Sir Des Champs, and a potential army heading to the bumper then I’m sure the Mullins team will find at least another 2-3 winners and that would make them hard to peg back. What about backing Ruby to be top jockey in a double with Mullins being top trainer at around 11/4?    


Can any jockey ride more winners at the festival this year than Ruby Walsh?

I doubt it! He’s been top dog at the festival now in 6 of the last 8 seasons, including the last 4 years and even at around 4/6 in the betting then I rather be a backer than a layer. Of course, anyone getting involved in this market should wait until Ruby makes it to the festival in one piece, but with Barry Geraghty as his only feasible danger then it looks a straight fight and, for me, Ruby has by far the better looking rides.


Have any of this year’s bumper horses caught your eye?

Willie Mullins-trained horses will be all the rage again, but, like I said recently, this stat has become rather overused in recent years. True, the Irish champion trainer has won this race a monster six times – including one I rode for him, Florida Pearl, in 1997. But at the moment the yard are only 1 Cheltenham bumper winner from their last 24 sent to post.

Of those that I’ve seen I’ve already mentioned John Ferguson’s New Year’s Eve, while the Newbury bumper that Jonjo’s Shutthefrontdoor won recently looked a hot contest and he could be another for the shortlist.


If you had a free bet to be placed on the next year’s (2013) Cheltenham Festival, where would it go?

As long as they don’t up him in trip then with Sizing Europe and Big Zeb not getting any younger I think Sprinter Sacre can dominate the Queen Mother Champion Chase for the coming years.

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