Market Mood Changing to Cautiously Positive

Oct. 13, 2011 - PRLog -- Judging by yesterday’s publication of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from September 21, the Committee’s members are coming closer to establishing a target level for economic indicators like inflation in order to decide how long to hold the interest rate at its current record-low level. DT Trading analysts surmise that actual steps toward accomplishing this might be taken as early as next month.

The majority of 17 central bank managers and presidents of regional banks “saw advantages” in this approach and reasoned that this may make the Federal Reserve’s policy more effective, judging by the minutes of its last meeting on September 20-21 in Washington. The minutes revealed that some members of the FOMC proposed resuming large-scale bond purchases as an option. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is trying to find new ways to stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment, which is still around 9%, along with cushioning the economy from risks posed by the drop in housing construction and the debt crisis in Europe. DT Trading analysts think the Fed’s next two-day meeting on November 1-2 will be held under the approval of the “three oppositionists” (Charles Plosser, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Richard Fisher) to “perfect the cooperation mechanism” of the Fed and the current monetary policy of smaller banks, which are of vital importance for stimulating small businesses and, in turn, increasing the number of new hires. Last week’s meeting between Bernanke and members of Congress was intended to put pressure on Bernanke to this end. Members of Congress directed some unpleasant questions at the Fed chairman about how the Fed could allow the four largest investment banks in the US to accumulate an amount equal to about 60% of American GDP on their accounts – an eloquent argument indeed for taking Richard Fisher’s proposal into consideration.

Today, the European stock markets fell from a 10-week high and copper led a drop in all commodities due to fears that company profits and economic growth are slowing because of the region’s debt crisis. Asian stocks, on the other hand, are rising for the sixth day in a row after Chinese authorities took certain steps to help small and mid-sized businesses. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.4% as of 8:07AM in London after closing yesterday at its highest level since August 4. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved only slightly. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%. Oil lost 0.7% in trading in New York and copper fell 1.6%. The Euro fell 0.3% to 106.26 yen, while the Australian dollar and South Korean won rose to three-week highs.

The company Carrefour SA announced today that its profits may drop 20% this year. Analysts are predicting that JP Morgan Chase (JPM) will report a 10% drop in its net profits today. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will speak in Brussels today after proposing a “coordinated approach” to recapitalizing Euro zone banks. China publicized a package of measures to render aid to small companies which included tax breaks and easier access to loans, since data on exports signaled that economic growth was stalling.

DT Trading Limited Analytical Department

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