Domestic Economic Health from Joseph Glenn Commodities

Oct. 10, 2011 - PRLog -- Consumer spending increased by 0.2% in August, down from a revised 0.7% gain in July. Consumer incomes declined by 0.1% in August for the first time in almost two years. Consumer confidence - which seemingly had nowhere to go but up in light of the July figures - did improve somewhat. The University of Michigan's finalSeptember survey rose to 59.4 from the final August 55.7 reading, 1.6 points better than the consensus forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg News; the survey's index of current conditions went up to 74.9 from August's final 68.7 mark. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index edged north 0.2% to 44.7. Consumer prices grew 0.4% in August, with core CPI up 0.2% and 2.0% year-over-year, the biggest annualized core inflation number in almost three years. Producer prices were flat in August, and so were U.S. retail sales. The jobless rate was 9.1% in August - the 25th time in the past 27 months it had been above 9%.

The manufacturing and service sectors saw improved growth, at least by the gauge of the most recent Institute for Supply Management manufacturing and service sector indices. ISM's service sector index rose to 53.3 in August from July's 52.7 mark - an improvement few analysts were expecting. Its September manufacturing index rose a full percentage point to 51.6. Durable goods orders diminished in August, but not by much - just 0.1% overall. Core capital goods orders were up 1.1% and core capital goods shipments were up 2.8%.

In Washington, there were two big news items. President Obama unveiled the American Jobs Act - a bill that would cut the payroll tax for workers and businesses to 3.1% in 2012, offer tax credits as large as $4,000 to companies hiring the long-term unemployed, and devote about $80 billion into infrastructure projects. To pay for it, the President proposed $1.6 trillion in tax increases for upper-income Americans and corporations as a component of a $4.4 trillion reduction of the federal deficit by fiscal year 2021. Republicans dismissed any direct link between taxes on the wealthy and future job creation, and it remains to be seen if the AJA will pass in anything like its entirety.