Europe and NYC Real Estate

Sept. 30, 2011 - PRLog -- As we continue to ride the ups and downs of the European sovereign debt crisis the question is how will it impact NYC real estate.  The investment property market and high end luxury residential market (often seen as an investment as well), will become stronger then ever. There are trillions of dollars that could flee Europe for safe keeping.  The strategy will no be maximizing return but simply asset preservation.  The dollars that are invested in European sovereign debt are core type investments and are not seeking opportunistic yields.  As that capital comes to New York City which is seen as the top market in the world by many, cap rate compression will become severe as some may be happy with zero return just to preserve capital and hedge against inflation over a longer term horizon. The side effect of this will be people forced to buy opportunistic assets at core or core plus returns.  The next thing that will be heard is “deals don’t make sense anymore.”  They must make sense to someone or they wouldn’t get done.What could happen is a shift from enjoying the income stream of an asset to relying almost entirely on the exit for all of the profit to happen.

The other thing that will be bounced around is “bubble.”  This is a concern people have with rates at historic lows for an extended period of time and people doing deals that “dont make sense anymore.”  The fact is that underwriting standards are still tight and construction money is still limited to most borrowers so there is no great supply chain which is a key component of a real estate bubble.

Between now and the next presidential election there will be more of a leadership vacuum as campaigns heat up and the likelihood of much getting done in the interim is small.  Until people know who will be in the oval office, the senate and the house, people will need what they perceive as safety.  If New York City real estate continues to be the answer for even a fraction of the global wealth, then prices still have plenty of room to increase even without strong momentum in the local economy.

About James D. Kinsey
Raised in a real estate family in New York, Mr. Kinsey, CEO and Partner of ERG Property Advisors, inherited a passion for the industry and brings determination, excellence, and leadership to the practice of brokerage.  More so, James maintains a continuous focus on market information, technology, transactions, financing, and the various disciplines needed to excel in his profession.

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ERG Property Advisors is a full-service commercial brokerage company based in New York City. Our core activities are investment sales, retail leasing, and strategic consulting. While focused on the broader New York City area as a company, ERG also offers specific market knowledge at the submarket level. Beyond core New York City properties, ERG has access to a vast network of Triple Net properties throughout the United States. In addition to assisting property owners and prospective buyers, ERG provides banks, appraisers, attorneys, and accountants with information and skill sets that support them in their respective roles. Through strategic alliances with select companies we are able to offer our clients access to financing and financial market information, residential rental and sales brokerage services, and property management services.