Recently released market study: Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011

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Aug. 28, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.2% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 15.3% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Kazakhstan's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 3.30%, while its share of production is put at 5.18%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.09%, with the country accounting for 6.85% of supply.

Full Report Details at

Consumption growth should keep pace with the growing economy, but is unlikely to have much negative impact on export potential. We are forecasting that domestic oil demand will reach 289,000b/d by 2015. State-owned KazMunaiGaz (KMG) accounts for more than 10% of oil production and participates in joint venture (JV) projects with international oil companies (IOCs), which should deliver rapid volume growth after the Karachaganak field builds up to full output in excess of 200,000b/d. Expansion of the Tengiz field and activation of the offshore Kashagan project should push Kazakh production towards 2.30mn b/d by 2015. This implies that oil exports should rise from an estimated 1.50mn b/d in 2010 to 2.01mn b/d by the end of the forecast period.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Kazakh oil and gas liquids production of 30.3%, with volumes reaching a peak of 2.40mn b/d in 2017/2018, before falling to 2.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 39.3%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 369,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 40bcm to 80bcm by 2020. Gas demand rising 82.9% provides export potential increasing to 42bcm.

Kazakhstan holds first place, above Azerbaijan, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It still occupies first place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment rating, now four points ahead of neighbour Azerbaijan. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, asset immaturity, high reserves to production ratios (RPR) and competitive landscape work in the country's favour, but are undermined by a relatively unappealing risk environment. Kazakhstan is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment rating, holding ninth place above Turkmenistan. There are few particularly high scores, so progress further up the rankings seems unlikely. The low level of retail-site intensity represents a strong suit, along with region-leading oil demand growth prospects.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Kazakhstan Political SWOT
- Kazakhstan Economic SWOT
- Kazakhstan Business Environment SWOT
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
- Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
- Central/Eastern Europe Region
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- Kazakhstan Upstream Rating - Overview
- Kazakhstan Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Kazakhstan Upstream Rating - Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- Kazakhstan Downstream Rating - Overview
- Kazakhstan Downstream Rating - Rewards
- Kazakhstan Downstream Rating - Risks
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Kazakhstan Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Kazakhstan Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Kazakhstan Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- KazMunaiGaz (KMG)
- Chevron
- Eni Kazakhstan
- BG Kazakhstan
- ExxonMobil Kazakhstan
- Shell Kazakhstan

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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