New market study, "Malaysia Metals Report Q3 2011", has been published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Malaysia Metals Report Q3 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
July 26, 2011 - PRLog -- In 2011, growth in Malaysian steel consumption will be determined by the implementation speeds of infrastructure projects under the Economic Transformation Programme, according to this latest Malaysia Metals Report from BMI. Although the outlook for the country's construction sector has improved over the last quarter due to a significant increase in government spending on infrastructure (thereby improving prospects for steel longs), growth in the construction sector is expected at a modest 1-2.5% per annum over the forecast period.

The construction sector is vital to the recovery of the Malaysian steel market as it represents 71% of the country's steel consumption. Malaysia's construction sector registered a significantly high growth rate of more than 6% in 2008, but has since started to decline to around 4-5%. Through 2011 and beyond, BMI remains cautious about the prospects for Malaysia's construction sector. We anticipate that a slowdown will kick in during H211, in line with a renewed slowdown in the broader economy.

Full Report Details at

Although the economy grew by an impressive 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H110, we believe that a hard landing in China dented Malaysia's economic growth during the second half of 2010. We saw this start to happen, with Malaysia's Q310 real GDP growth slowing to 5.3% y-o-y. In 2011, we expect further moderation, with real GDP growth to come in at 4.9% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012 respectively. Malaysia's economy is closely linked to China's (Malaysian exports to China account for 20% of Malaysia's GDP) and so it is highly probable that a Chinese slowdown will adversely affect the performance of Malaysia's export-driven economy (exports were expected to account for 111.4% of GDP in 2010). This decline in exports is likely to place fresh strain on central government revenues, which, in turn, will constrain the government's ability to invest in infrastructure over the medium term.

Any slowdown will undermine Masteel's expectation that it will be able to increase its turnover from government contracts to 20-25% (from 15%) under the 10th Malaysia Plan. The government has allocated some MYR63bn to 52 large projects, compared with MYR33.1bn under the ninth plan. Output will also be encouraged by a rise in Masteel's production capacity from 450,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) to 500,000tpa.

Chinese steel demand, which is crucial to Malaysia's export markets, will hold up due to the ongoing processes of industrialisation and urbanisation, but the pace of growth will be slower over the medium term. However, the market is in danger of short-term saturation, with capacities growing at a faster rate than the market can absorb. While the Chinese government is starting to tackle the problem by ordering the closure of small blast furnaces, removing electricity subsidies and placing a moratorium on new projects, it may not be enough to deter over-capacity in 2011. This will drive down prices as well as demand for steel from ASEAN producers such as Malaysia.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Malaysia Political SWOT
- Malaysia Economic SWOT
- Malaysia Business Environment SWOT
Global Market Overview
- Steel Forecast
- Steel to Average US$580/tonne In 2011
- BMI Steel Forecast
- Steel Prices
- Cost Push On The Supply Side
- Few Supply Constraints In Sight, For Now
Commodities Forecast
- Commodity Strategy - Metals Update
- Aluminium
- Copper
- Gold
- Lead
- Nickel
- Tin
- Zinc
Regional Overview
- Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2009
Forecast Scenario
- Table: Malaysia's Metal Industry ('000 tonnes unless stated), 2008-2015
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Malaysia - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Malaysia's Top Integrated Steel Companies
- Trade Policy
Company Profiles
- Perwaja Steel
- The Lion Group
Global Assumptions, Q311
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Consensus Forecasts
- Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y)
Country Snapshot: Malaysia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000-2003
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Tags:Steel, Aluminium, Malaysian, Projects, Sarawak, Smelter, Flats, Transformation, Completed, Construction
Industry:Industrial, Manufacturing, Energy
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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