New market study, "Congo Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011", has been published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Congo Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
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July 26, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Republic of Congo Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.32% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.5% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.

Full Report Details at

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Congo consumed an estimated 0.83% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 1.23% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 0.48% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 0.68% of supply.

The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.

The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow down, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

The Republic of Congo (RoC)'s real GDP rose by an estimated 11.9% in 2010 and we forecast average annual growth of 4.6% from 2010-2015. We see oil demand rising from an estimated 11,000b/d in 2010 to 13,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Societe Nationale des Petroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Around a third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from 303,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 360,000b/d in 2011, before easing to 332,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 2.0bcm by 2014/15. Consumption is expected to track the production trend.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Congolese oil and gas liquids production of 0.90%, with volumes falling to 300,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.89%, with growth remaining steady an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 17,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be any need for imports or potential for net exports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

RoC is ranked ninth in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes eighth place, ahead of Egypt, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The county's score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. RoC is at the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It holds last place, behind Equatorial Guinea, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and forecast GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country's low retail site intensity are relatively strong suits. About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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