New market study, "France Metals Report Q3 2011", has been published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "France Metals Report Q3 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
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Listed Under

* Steel
* French
* Closure
* Aluminium
* Furnace
* Automotive
* Blast
* Metals
* H210
* Eaf

* Industrial
* Manufacturing
* Energy

* Massachusetts - US

July 22, 2011 - PRLog -- The growth witnessed in French steel consumption and output in 2010 is set to slow in 2011 due to  decreasing rates of private consumption growth, according this latest France Metals Report from BMI.  In the first 11 months of 2010, French crude steel output was up 21.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 11.3mn  tonnes, with blast furnace output up 31.9% y-o-y to 9.1mn tonnes and EAF output up 7.3% to 5.2mn  tonnes. However, growth moderated in H210 with monthly output in November down 1.6% y-o-y and  6.1% m-o-m to 1.29mn tonnes; blast furnace output was down 13.6% y-o-y to 751,000 tonnes while EAF  output was up 21.9% y-o-y to 539,000 tonnes. France's steel industry is lagging behind the rest of the  EU-27 with output up 26.3% y-o-y in 11M10 and 4.1% y-o-y in November. The closure of two French  mills by ArcelorMittal depressed output in H210. BMI estimates that French finished steel consumption  grew 15.2% y-o-y to 13.6mn tonnes, but was still 24% down on the 2007 peak.  Despite the ongoing healthy performance of private consumption, which we have long expected to remain  the key driver of growth going forward, we nevertheless continue to forecast something of a slowdown in  French growth next year. However, we now expect a much less severe dip in growth, with real GDP  forecast to expand by 1.4% in 2011 (from 1.5% in 2010), compared with our previous forecast of 1.0%.  The recovery in the domestic steel market during 2010 - driven by a resilient consumer - is unlikely to be  at a fast enough pace to return consumption to pre-crisis norms in 2011 in our view. Stalling consumer  confidence and fiscal cuts will start to weigh on household spending.  BMI does not envisage a return to pre-recession levels until 2013 or 2014, although there is a possibility  of some plant and furnace closures, which could lead to lower output levels over this period. By 2015,  crude steel output should be around 18.3mn tonnes, which is around 2.2% above 2008 levels. Aluminium  should fare better, helped in part by its use in lighter and more fuel-efficient vehicles. By 2015,  aluminium production should have recovered to 2008 levels, provided there is no closure of capacity.  The main constraining factor is the long-term fall in demand from steel-consuming industries, notably the  automotive sector, which is not expected to return to pre-recession rates of production in the next five  years. In 2010, key steel and aluminium flat product consuming industries exhibited a slow recovery,  although growth was principally due to base effects. BMI estimates that vehicle production fell to 1.76mn  units in 2009, a fall of 16% over 2008 and down 43% over 2006 levels. We do not forecast a return to  production volumes of 2mn units or above over the next five years. BMI's automotive team warns that  French production could continue to be eroded by companies moving operations to cheaper Eastern  European bases, although the government's five-year loan to carmakers and the consequent carmaker  commitments will ensure that the fall in output is not too drastic. This will undermine the competitiveness  of French industries up the supply chain due to the resulting increase in transportation costs and the likely  appreciation of the euro against Eastern European currencies over the medium term.    BMI's infrastructure team forecast real industry value growth of -4.4% in 2009 and 0.4% in 2010 before  a recovery is staged in 2011, when growth is forecast at 2.7%, lifting domestic demand for constructionrelated  long steel products.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Tags:Steel, French, Closure, Aluminium, Furnace, Automotive, Blast, Metals, H210, Eaf
Industry:Industrial, Manufacturing, Energy
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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