New Market Research Report: Canada Food & Drink Report Q3 2011

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Canada Food & Drink Report Q3 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
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Listed Under

* Food
* Canadian
* Drink
* Nutritional
* Housing
* Healthier
* Can
* Retail
* Overheating

* Food
* Restaurants
* Research

* Massachusetts - US

July 21, 2011 - PRLog -- The Canadian consumer demonstrated particular resilience throughout the downturn, as reflected in figures for private consumption growth, which remained in positive territory during 2009 and 2008. However, in the last six months, things have looked less rosy, with the economy slowing a bit more quickly than we anticipated and the consumer showing signs of taking a breather. The outlook is one of moderation from a strong H209-H110, not fundamental weakness. This view is a result of incoming headwinds, including interest rate hikes, inflation reducing disposable income and the potential for house price moderation or even a downturn. That said, the underlying fundamentals are still positive, with the labour market improving and real wages beginning to grow more robustly accordingly.

Full Report Details at

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2011 per capita food consumption value = 1.4%; forecast to 2015 = 7.1%
* 2011 alcoholic drink value sales = -0.4%; forecast to 2015 = 18.2%
* 2011 soft drink value sales = 0.3%; forecast to 2015 = 19.7%
* 2011 mass grocery retail value sales = 3.7%; forecast to 2015 = 28.1%

Key Company Trends And Developments

Staple Outperformance Chimes With Increasing Consumer Pressure - In line with an uptrend in the wider market, consumer shares in Canada have generally been moving upwards over the last 18 months. Over this period, consumer discretionary stocks outperformed, but since the start of 2011 this pattern has reversed, with staples coming to the fore. The underperformance of consumer discretionary stocks is usually seen as a sign of risk aversion, and the expectations of consumer retrenchment. This fits in fairly well with our outlook for the Canadian market, with the Canadian consumer expected to moderate in 2011 and 2012 after a very strong previous 12 months.

Cott's Ongoing Turnaround Predicted By BMI - Canadian private label soft drink specialist Cott has posted rising sales for its latest financial year. In the 12 months to December Cott registered a 7% increase in recoded volumes, with the results boosted by the acquisition of juice maker Cliffstar in August 2010. On an organic basis (excluding the impact of Cliffstar) volumes were up by 1%. Revenues were up by 13% to US$1.8bn but declined on an organic basis by 1%. During the fourth quarter Cott's sales growth accelerated, with volumes up by 20% (4% excluding Cliffstar) and revenues up by 37% (3% excluding Cliffstar). The results continue to point to a recovery for the business, which had been hampered by mismanagement and the trend away from carbonated soft drinks.

Key Risks to Outlook

Secondary slowdown - Though the risks of a 2011 US slowdown are fading, we still remain concerned about the growth cycle in China, which could ease significantly as the government there tightens policy to stave off soaring inflationary pressures. This would have knock-on effects on Canada via several channels, not least commodity prices.

Household indebtedness - High household indebtedness also threatens to crimp private consumption. The federal structure, with individual provinces sometimes pulling in different directions, could create new and unexpected calls on the federal budget, and risk further eroding the fiscal deficit. A more austere government fiscal plan than we are expecting could lead to a flat or even negative contribution from government consumption, perhaps as early as 2012.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Canada Food Industry SWOT
- Canada Drink Industry SWOT
- Canada Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
- BMI's Core Global Industry Views
- Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views
- Risk/Rewards Ratings
- Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Total Consumption
- Table: Canada Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drink Value Sales ? Historical Data & Forecasts
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Canada Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Canada - MGR Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- Investment In Capacity
- Interest In Healthy Alternatives
- Food Industry Restructuring
- North American Dairy Consolidation
- Ethical Focus
- High Liner Bids for Growth
- Market Overview
- Food Consumption
- Food Processing
- Confectionery
- Dairy
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- Cott's Ongoing Turnaround Predicted By BMI
- Soft Drinks Companies Reveal Calorie Count
- Interest in Healthier Alternatives
- Possible Entry Of Coca-Cola FEMSA
- Interest in Craft Beers Growing
- Investment In Wine
- Growth Of Coffee Capsules
- Market Overview
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Hot Drinks
- Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- Target Expands Into Canada
- Growth Of The Hypermarket
- Couche-Tard Driving Consolidation In North American Convenience
- MGR Market Overview
- Main Players
- Table: Canada - Structure Of Canada's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, Sales By Format (US$bn)

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Food, Canadian, Drink, Nutritional, Housing, Healthier, Can, Retail, Overheating
Industry:Food, Restaurants, Research
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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