July 19, 2011 -
PRLog -- As we publish our first report for 2011, all of BMI's forecasts have been extended to 2015. Our outlook on the mobile sector varies widely across the region over this time horizon, with penetration rates inching less than 4 percentage points (pps) in Trinidad & Tobago, while surging more than 20pps in the Bahamas. Without a doubt, one of the most anticipated events in the Caribbean telecoms industry has been the privatisation of Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC). After much speculation and years of delays, it seems that the dust is finally settling. Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Bahaman government to buy a 51% stake in BTC, with a three-
year exclusivity deal to provide mobile services in the country. CWC agreed to pay US$210mn for the stake, and the government will retain the remaining 49%. Haiti, as it struggles to get its recovery from the massive earthquake early 2010 on firm footing, presents unique challenges. Heightened political tension due to the perceived mishandling of the reconstruction effort, along with an outbreak of cholera blamed on foreign soldiers, have made an already difficult situation worse. Nevertheless, our longer-term outlook for mobile operators in the country is positive, as we expect Haiti to become a fast-growing market, increasing the total number of subscriptions by 50% over the next five years. Mobile banking was announced on the island in November 2010 and is expected to provide a valuable service to unbanked Haitians, as well as create a new way to drive mobile growth. Cuba saw a remarkable spike in net additions to mobile subscriptions in Q210, but this was tempered by much more subdued growth in Q310. It appears that BMI's hopes that the long-awaited take-off in the sector had finally begun in earnest will have to be put on ice. The sector still saw healthy growth for the quarter, 4% q-o-q and over 40% y-o-y, but after a 23% increase in Q310, the data was somewhat disappointing. We still believe that growth will accelerate to eventually take advantage of the huge unserved demand for mobile services on the island. This is reflected in our forecasts, which indicate that penetration will rise to 22.1% by 2015 (from 5.5 in 2009). While mobile saturation is an issue in some markets, there is still ample room for growth in the provision of broadband services. We expect two countries (Martinique and Barbados) to edge towards 60% broadband penetration rate by 2015, which is impressive by any standard. Most of the other Caribbean economies will likewise see strong growth, with the lone exceptions of Haiti and Cuba, which suffer from unfavourable political and economic environments. Fixed lines are declining in many markets where they must compete with mobile services, but continue to climb in Cuba. Curiously, fixed line growth outpaced mobile growth in Q310 in Puerto Rico. While we do not expect this to be a trend reversal in the country (where fixed lines have been declining over the past decade), it does show that fixed lines can still show signs of life in a largely wireless age.
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