New Market Research Report: Mexico Retail Report Q3 2011

July 15, 2011 - PRLog -- The Q311 BMI Mexico Retail report forecasts the country's retail sales will grow from an expected MXN2,323bn (US$196.85bn) in 2011 to MXN2,675bn (US$257.88bn) by 2015, a rise of 15.2%. Increasing affluence, a growing population - including a larger number of young people - and the continuing development of organised retail infrastructure are the key factors behind the forecast growth in Mexico's retail sales.

Mexico's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$1,202.7bn in 2011, with growth of 4.0% expected for the year. Average annual GDP growth of 2.8% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population forecast to increase from 109.5mn in 2011 to 113.1mn by 2015, GDP per capita is expected to rise by 39.6%, reaching US$15,338.

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Full Report Details at
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Mexico is the world's 11th largest country in terms of population. Almost 55% of Mexicans are 24 years old or younger, one of the highest percentages for an upper-middle-income economy in the world. The proportion in the 20-44 age range, which is crucial for retail sales, was estimated at 41.5% at the end of 2010, according to the UN Population Division. In 2005, 63.6% of Mexicans were described by the UN as economically active and this reached 66.3% in 2010. The trend towards urbanisation is predicted to continue, with the proportion of those living in towns and cities estimated at 76% in 2005 and 77.4% in 2010 by the UN.

Consumer credit grew strongly in the years up to 2008. In 2006, banks approved 8.7mn credit cards, awarding 40% of new accounts to customers with no previous credit history. There were estimated to be 29mn credit cards in circulation in Mexico during 2008, up from an estimated 22mn in 2007. The number of debit cards is estimated at 11mn. However, access to credit tightened considerably during 2009.

Retail sub-sectors forecast to show strong growth include food and drink, up by 41.5%, from a predicted US$67.90bn in 2011 to US$96.06bn in 2015.

Consumer electronic sales are expected to increase by 34.4% between 2011 and 2015, from US$11.02bn to US$14.82bn. The Mexican market offers continued growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (less than 20% penetration), notebook computers (21% CAGR projected), digital cameras (9%) and LCD TV sets (20% CAGR projected).

Vehicle sales are forecast to rise during the forecast period from 914,414 units to 1,219,824 units. There is significant optimism for a strong recovery in domestic demand for cars, with Volkswagen estimating a 25% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in sales in 2010 to US$8bn.

Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to rise by 40.6% between 2011 and 2015, from US$1.71bn to US$2.40bn.

Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2011 are expected to reach US$1,337bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$3,155bn. Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for an estimated 74.0% of regional retail sales in 2011, with the two countries still likely to account for 72.5% of all retail sales in the region by 2015. Mexico's predicted 2011 market share of 14.7% is expected to fall to 13.2% by 2015.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Mexico Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2015
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011f
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Mexico Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2008-2015
- Table: Latin America Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015
- Regional Retail Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Mexico's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Mexico Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Mexico's MGR Market by Estimated Numbers of Outlets, 2002-2009
- Table: Structure Of Mexico's MGR Market - Sales Value by Format (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of Mexico's MGR Market - Sales Value by Format (MXNbn)
- Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2006-2015
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Mexico Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2008-2015
- Audio/Video
- Table: AV Sales, 2008-2015
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2015
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Sales Overview , 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Mexico Auto Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Vehicle Production, 2009-2010
- Table: Vehicle Sales To Dealerships, 2009-2010
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Domestic Sales
- Table: Auto Sales By Segment, 2009-2015
- Production
- Table: Auto Production By Segment, 2009-2015
- Trade
- Table: Auto Sector, 2009-2015
- Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.