Recently released market study: Pakistan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Pakistan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011"
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July 7, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.5% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.7% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

Full Report Details at

The region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010 and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Pakistan's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 7.6%, while its share of production is put at 9.6%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.9%, with the country accounting for 7.5% of supply.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

BMI estimates that Pakistan's real GDP grew by 4.4% in 2010, with an average annual increase of 3.2% forecast for 2010-2015. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of 57,500b/d by 2015, with the country able to pump around 67,000b/d in 2010/11. Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to increase by around 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 444,870b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 387,390b/d by 2015. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 39bcm in 2010 to almost 45bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 2.8bcm.

Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Pakistani oil production of 37%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 40,680b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 22%, with growth slowing to 1.5-2% per annum during the period and the country using 488,080b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 39bcm in 2010 to a possible 54.4bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 3-5%, this will require imports rising to 6.4bcm by the end of the forecast period.

Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.

Pakistan is now ranked equal eighth with Japan and Indonesia in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table. It ranks seventh, above Indonesia and China, in the updated upstream ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country now sits three points behind the Philippines and is unlikely to make further progress over the medium term. Pakistan ranks equal ninth with Vietnam in BMI's downstream ratings, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Pakistan Political SWOT
- Pakistan Economic SWOT
- Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Pakistan Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
- Asia Pacific Region
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- Pakistan Upstream Rating - Overview
- Pakistan Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Pakistan Upstream Rating - Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- Pakistan Downstream Rating - Overview
- Pakistan Downstream Rating - Rewards
- Pakistan Downstream Rating - Risks To Potential Returns
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Property Rights
- Intellectual Property Rights
- Corruption
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Foreign Trade Regime
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Pakistan Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Pakistan Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Pakistan
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Pakistan Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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