Tsuen Wan International: Barclays expecting 1.38 million barrel per day oil demand growth in 2012.

July 6, 2011 - PRLog -- The report available to Tsuen Wan International says, “Among the key macroeconomic assumptions, our demand forecasts are based on 4.3% global GDP growth in 2012, a little higher than the 4% forecast for this year. US GDP growth is forecast at 3.4% in 2012, a substantial improvement from the 2.5% in 2011, and Chinese growth is forecast at 8.7%, a deceleration from the 9.3% pace of the current year. In oil demand terms, we see growth of 1.38 mb/d, marginally down from the current 1.59 mb/d forecast for 2011, with the absolute level of global demand averaging 87.8 mb/d in 2011.”

The oil demand profile will continue to be led by non-OECD demand growth, which Barclays anticipates to be 1.57 mb/d, while OECD oil demand growth slips back further into negative territory of -0.19 mb/d, following a fall of 0.09 mb/d in 2011.

Looking at individual countries, Tsuen Wan International learned that  Barclays forecasts the biggest oil demand increases will come from China (+0.71 mb/d), Brazil (+0.18 mb/d) and Saudi Arabia and India (+0.12 mb/d each), with the biggest drop coming from Europe, which is forecast to fall by 0.12 mb/d.

Both Japanese and US demand are expected to drop by 0.04 mb/d.


“Our demand growth forecasts assume some significant effects from increased energy efficiency and oil demand suppression policies in the US and Europe in particular, and overall we judge the bias on the forecasts as being towards the cautious side in terms of 2010 and 2011 demand growth.”


“In judging the likely path of 2012 demand, we would note that contrary to a wide strand of current market sentiment, 2011 demand forecasts have not as yet disappointed significantly relative to their initial levels. Indeed, our own 2011 demand forecast has tracked a little upwards over the past year. When introduced last July our global demand growth forecast for 2011 was 1.59 mb/d, and one year on and half-way through the year, it currently stands a little higher at 1.68 mb/d.”

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